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Rupee expected to recover to 250 against dollar: top currency dealer

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  • Exchange companies now getting $15 million per day: Bostan.
  • Crackdown exposes nexus between black marketeers, banking staff: ECAP chief.
  • Permanent check on illegal dollar trade will help boost reserves.

ISLAMABAD: Chairman Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) Malik Bostan hopes in the backdrop of government’s crackdown against hoarders, black marketeers and smugglers of dollars, the country’s remittances may increase by 10-20%.

Talking to The News, he said because of the crackdown the foreign exchange companies, which earlier used to get around $5 million per day, are now getting $15 million per day i.e., 200% increase. For the same reason, he said the interbank and open market dollar rate has considerably come down and now stands around Rs295. He assured if the crackdown continued, the dollar will come down to below Rs250.

Bostan disclosed the crackdown against hoarders, black marketeers and smugglers of dollars has also exposed a nexus between black marketeers and banking staff. Huge amount of dollars, he said, was stashed in lockers of different banks, and the bank staff in coordination with the black marketers, used these dollars for hawala/hundi. Keys of these lockers were with the corrupt bank staff members, Bostan said, adding upon receiving messages from black marketers concerned, they (bankers) used to do the illegal trading of US dollars.

The chairman of ECAP claimed several FIRs have been lodged against the bankers involved in this illegal activity.

Bostan said the illegal dollar business has also corrupted many importers and exporters. He explained there is a trend of over-invoicing among importers and under-invoicing among exporters only for the sake of dollars’ illegal trade. The importers through their over-invoicing send more dollars abroad, whereas the exporters through under-invoicing leave a considerable part of their dollars in foreign banks. This hurt Pakistan and its foreign exchange reserves, Bostan said.

He also pointed out how the dollars were smuggled to Afghanistan. He believed a permanent check on illegal dollar trade in all its shapes will help Pakistan boost its foreign exchange reserves.

Following the crackdown, which began on Sept 6 after a military leadership push, tens of millions of dollars have already been deposited into the country’s interbank and open markets. Pakistani rupee, which had plumbed record lows to Rs308 in interbank and beyond Rs330 in open market early this month, is in recovery mode and has come down to Rs295 in interbank and Rs296 in open market. This trend is expected to continue if the crackdown against illegal trade of US dollar continues.

According to Bostan, he had requested Army Chief General Asim Munir to take action against hoarders, black marketeers and smugglers of dollars. Before the crackdown, the vast majority of people were going to black market dealers.

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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