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Rupee falls to historic low of 299 vs dollar

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  • Rupee fell by 1.88 against greenback, closes at 299.01.Its previous record low was 298.93, which was hit on May 11.Analyst expects rupee to trade between 295 and 305 for time being.


Rupee plunged to a historic low on Tuesday, depreciating by 0.63% against the US dollar in the interbank market due to an easing in import restrictions that has lifted demand for the dollar.The local currency fell by 1.88 against the greenback and closed at 299.01 at the end of the day’s trading, according to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

Its previous record low was 298.93, which was hit on May 11.

On Monday, the rupee closed at 297.13 against the dollar as compared to Friday’s close of Rs295.78.

Head of research at Arif Habib Tahir Abbas said he expected the rupee to trade between 295 and 305 to the dollar for the time being.

“The declining trend is mainly attributable to the ease off in the import restrictions coupled with clearance of backlog for goods and services,” he said.

He added that multinational corporations were able to repatriate some profits, furthering rupee outflows.

Commenting on the development, AA Commodities Director Adnan Agar told Geo.tv that the rupee depreciation is mostly due to political reasons as there are fears of a delay in the general elections, consequently delaying the fulfilment of commitments from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other global lenders.

“When the political uncertainty continues, with a caretaker setup in power, questions like who will invest and lend the money to the country arise,” he said.

Agar added that this is the reason for the rupee’s losses and it will remain the same until or unless there is clarity on the political situation.

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E&P Companies Will Invest $5 Billion in Pakistan’s Petroleum Industry

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Over the next three years, local and foreign companies involved in Pakistan’s oil and gas exploration and production sector have shown a strong desire to invest more than $5 billion in the nation’s energy sector.

Recent changes to the Petroleum Policy and the implementation of an exclusive tight gas policy, which provide better incentives and a more investor-friendly regulatory framework, are credited with the increase in investor confidence.

These strategic changes are expected to boost domestic energy production, open up new avenues for growth, and draw large amounts of both domestic and foreign investment.

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With inflation slowing, the SBP is anticipated to lower the policy rate for the eighth time in a row.

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Businesspeople anticipate another reduction in the policy rate when the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) releases the updated rate.

The interest rate for the upcoming two months will be announced by the central bank. It is still unclear if the rate will stay the same or be lowered to reflect stakeholder expectations.

According to experts, the policy rate will be lowered in order to further boost the nation’s economic sector.

Interest rates may be lowered for the seventh time in a row if the inflation rate declines significantly more than anticipated.

In its last six sessions, the MPC had cut the policy rate by 10 percent. In January 2025, it decreased the rate by one percent to 12pc.

12PC POLICY RATE

In January, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced cut in key policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 12 percent from 13pc in line with expectations of the business community.

The policy rate, which had been at 22 percent since June 2024, was slashed by 1,000 basis points to 12 percent.

The SBP governor said the decision was taken with careful consideration. “Although inflation is expected to decline next month (February), core inflation remains a pressing concern,” he stated.

Ahmed highlighted strong remittance inflows and robust export growth as key factors supporting the current account.

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Bulls in the stock market are still going strong.

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As the bullish trend persisted on the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) on Monday, the KSE-100 index soared beyond the 115,000 level.

The PSX continued its upward trend from the weekend, and the KSE-100 index gained 600 points, reaching 115,048 points in early trading.

The index closed at 114,398 points on Friday, up 685 points.

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