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Rupee rally continues unabated over improved dollar supply

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  • Rupee settles at 262.82 against dollar in interbank market.
  • Adequate supply of dollar improves investors’ sentiment.
  • Local unit closes day at 268 in open market.

Amid optimism regarding the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme in the coming days and an improved supply of the greenback in the markets, the Pakistan rupee continued to register gains for the fourth consecutive session.

The local unit closed the day at 262.82 against the US dollar after gaining Rs1.56, or 0.59%, in the interbank market compared to Thursday’s close of 264.38. Meanwhile, the rupee value remained unchanged at 268 in the open market.

Currency dealers attribute this recovery to an improved supply of greenback as exporters are selling their dollar holdings to take advantage of better rates while an increase in remittance inflows is also observed.

The government has undertaken the necessary steps to secure the stalled IMF programme. It has depreciated the currency, increased the cost of gas and electricity, and ultimately unveiled a mini-budget, imposing new taxation measures in an effort to raise an additional Rs170 billion during the ongoing fiscal year 2022-23.

The government appears to be prepared for a staff-level agreement with the IMF since all known prerequisites for the Washington-based lender have been met.

The centre is trying to get the IMF on board in the next day or two as depleting reserves and upcoming repayments on external fronts have pushed the government into the corner. Inflows from the IMF will unlock flows from friendly countries and other multilateral institutions.

Moreover, foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) also rose over $200 million during the week ended February 10 after a hiatus of three weeks.

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Gold prices in Pakistan approach an all-time high.

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Following a substantial surge the prior day, gold prices in Pakistan are ascending to unprecedented levels with an additional gain on Thursday, coinciding with a rise in global precious metal rates.

The price of 24-karat gold in the local market rose by Rs700 per tola, reaching Rs277,900, as reported by the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA).

Likewise, the cost of 10 grams of 24-karat gold increased by Rs600, currently priced at Rs238,254.

Globally, gold prices exhibited an upward trend, increasing by $7 throughout the day. The APGJSA reports that the international gold price was $2,682 per ounce.

Notwithstanding the increase in gold prices, the silver market exhibited stability, with the price of silver maintained at Rs3,050 per tola.

In the previous month, gold prices in Pakistan reached an unprecedented high of Rs 277,000 a tola, driven by substantial gains in the worldwide market.

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World Bank: Power industry subsidies soar by 400% in just five years.

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Ninety-four percent of domestic customers will benefit from the budgetary subsidy in 2024, according to a World Bank report, which credits the increase in protected consumers with contributing to the weight of subsidies.

In the current fiscal year, the electricity sector subsidy has increased by an astounding Rs. 954 billion, from Rs. 236 billion in the 2020 fiscal year to Rs. 1190 billion.

Notwithstanding changes, the circular debt has averaged Rs. 400 billion yearly over the last four years due to the incapacity to minimize losses and inadequate recovery of electricity payments.

According to the World Bank, the government must solve the fundamental problems in the power industry in order to lower the burden of subsidies and circular debt, as rising electricity prices and inadequate tax collection will only serve to worsen the circular debt crisis.

The rise in Pakistan’s power sector circular debt has raised worries from the World Bank (WB) despite an unprecedented increase in energy pricing.

Within the last six years, the debt has grown by 1241 billion rupees, according to the World Bank’s study. Between 2019 and 2021, the debt climbed by 1128 billion rupees.

The electricity sector’s circular debt has been increasing at an alarming rate, according to a World Bank analysis. Between 2022 and 2024, there was a substantial increase of 113 billion rupees.

Pakistan’s electricity industry has 2393 billion rupees in total circular debt as of 2024.

Restructuring is required to solve the circular debt issue, according to the World Bank.

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Final settlement: Govt to pay five IPPs Rs 72 billion.

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On October 10, Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif declared that the agreements with five IPPS would be terminated in the first phase. Sources claim that the government will give Rs 15.5 billion to Rousch Power and Rs 36.5 billion to Hubco.

In a same vein, the federal government would pay Lalpir Power Rs 12.8 billion, Atlas Power Rs 15.5 billion, and Sapphire Power Rs 6 billion.

The sources state that late payment fees are not included in the settlement. With effect from October 1, the agreements with the five IPPs will be considered officially ended.

PM Shehbaz earlier remarked that the termination was carried out with the owners of the IPPs’ mutual permission while presiding over the federal cabinet meeting in Islamabad.

The Prime Minister notified the Cabinet that the only money that will be paid, interest-free, to these IPPs is the outstanding balance.

According to him, the national exchequer will gain over 411 billion rupees from the termination of these contracts, while power customers will save roughly sixty billion rupees.

According to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, it was the result of the arduous teamwork of the entire government. In this regard, he also acknowledged the contributions and assistance of the associated parties. He specifically mentioned General Asim Munir, the Chief of Army Staff, who showed a personal interest in the situation.

The prime minister characterized the development as the start of a trip that will ultimately lead to the advancement and prosperity of the populace.

PM Shehbaz Sharif also brought up the assistance that the Punjabi and Federal governments gave to power users over the summer.

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