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Rupee registers handsome losses in pre-monetary policy session

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  • In interbank market, rupee fell 2.01 or 0.93%.
  • The local unit closes at 216.66 against dollar.
  • Rupee fell 0.31% against greenback last week.

KARACHI: The Pakistan rupee lost ground against the US dollar Monday ahead of the monetary policy announcement — scheduled for today — and the speculations surrounding the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In the interbank market, the rupee fell 2.01 or 0.93% against the dollar to close at 216.66, down from Friday’s close of 214.65, according to data from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

The greenback traded at 213-214 during the outgoing week. It closed at 213.98 per dollar on Monday and finished at 214.65 on Friday. The rupee fell 0.31% against the greenback last week.

Economist and former adviser to the federal ministry of finance Dr Khaqan Hassan Najeeb said the local unit slipped by Rs2 against the dollar due to political developments and the strengthening of the dollar internationally.

“But we also know the economic situation remains challenging. SBP reserves are weak at $7.8 billion — hardly enough for over a month of imports,” he said.

Non-oil imports are curbed by SBP by rationing the opening of letter of credit (LC), the economist said, adding that oil is already in excess, so oil imports are low.

“Point being, we are operating in a restricted environment, and there would be import needs piling up.”

Getting flows including IMF money, multilateral and bilateral monies, and new foreign direct investment (FDI) is essential to normalise the balance of payments.

“Of-course exports drop and remittance slowdown in July must be looked at carefully.”

Talking to The News, a trader said that apart from forex inflows and outflows, the monetary policy decision will be instrumental to gauge the rupee’s future direction.

Another factor that weakened the rupee was a shortage of greenback in the open market, which moved up the rate of the interbank price of the dollar as well.

The government lifted a ban on the import of non-essential and luxury goods to meet a condition of the IMF ahead of the board’s meeting later this month to revive the loan programme.

However, it announced the imposition of heavy duties on completely built units cars, mobile phones, and electronic appliances to discourage imports.

The market will also evaluate the impact of opening up luxury imports on the rupee, according to traders.

The foreign currency reserves have started to recover. The foreign reserves held by the central bank slightly increased by $67 million or 0.9% to $7.9 billion as of August 12.

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A stock market boom is questioned by an economist who points to few factors.

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According to Muzzammil Aslam, an economic expert, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has a debt of Rs725 billion.

Regarding financial advancements, he said that a particular fund has been established to handle economic difficulties, with Rs30 billion being provided to it.

Aslam observed that only five companies were mostly responsible for the recent spike on the Pakistan Stock Exchange.

“The boost is due to two fertilizer companies, two petroleum firms, and one bank,” he stated.

He went on to say that just five businesses helped the stock market rise by 35,000 points, underscoring their substantial influence on the performance of the market as a whole.

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Pakistan’s per capita GDP is on a positive growth track.

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With a per capita GDP of $1,680 in FY2024 and forecasts for FY2025 indicating further rise to $2,405, Pakistan has made notable strides in its economic recovery and perseverance in the face of adversity.

With a per capita GDP of $2,996, Islamabad outperformed a number of regional standards, including the $2,106 national average for India.

Punjab also demonstrated improvement, as evidenced by its per capita income of $1,713.60, which was 2% more than the national average and added to the country’s improving economic situation.

With a $1,748 per capita income, Sindh has also been a good performer. In the meantime, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and Balochistan reported per capita incomes of $1,388.41 and $1,106, respectively, indicating consistent economic growth in these regions.

Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and Kashmir also recorded noteworthy per capita incomes of $1,550 and $1,730, reflecting the government’s focus on balanced regional development.

India’s geographical differences, on the other hand, showed notable inequality. While southern states reported a per capita income of $3,421, northern regions, particularly those under the influence of Hindutva politics, reported much lower figures, with only $813.

India also grapples with severe poverty, with 234 million people living below the poverty line, according to the UNDP and Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative. According to the International Labour Organization, youth unemployment in India has also increased to concerning proportions, rising from 35.2% to 65.7%.

Despite facing external pressures, Pakistan’s economy has shown resilience, enduring a $150 billion loss over two decades due to foreign-sponsored terrorism, compounded by the burden of hosting 4 to 5 million Afghan refugees. However, Pakistan’s dedication to stability and long-term development is still evident.

Pakistan’s focus on sustainable and inclusive growth presents a clear roadmap for transforming current challenges into future opportunities, paving the way for long-term prosperity.

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SBP Governor Jameel predicts that Pakistan’s economy would rise by more than 3% in FY24–25.

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In the current fiscal year, Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to reach 3%, and forecasts for the upcoming year indicate that it will continue to accelerate, according to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor Jameel Ahmad.

The chairman of the central bank emphasized the significance of steady and progressive growth in order to prevent future balance of payments problems during a press conference on Thursday.

He pointed out that although Pakistan’s economy has grown by an average of 3.5% over the past ten years, the nation occasionally sees notable growth spikes followed by difficulties in the years that follow.

He stated that “the path to stable growth lies in gradual and consistent development,” emphasizing that the SBP will concentrate on controlling inflation and obstacles related to the foreign account.

The governor of the SBP also disclosed the SBP’s inflation target, which is set at 5 to 7 percent for the current fiscal year. Other sectors would profit as well, he said, if economic indicators improve and inflation stays under control.

“We hope that Pakistan’s current account will remain in surplus through December,” he said.

Remittances and the stabilization of foreign debt

Another update from the governor was that Pakistan’s foreign debt is still manageable. Currently, the nation owes $100.8 billion in foreign debt.

Despite the $500 million increase in this amount as a result of debt revaluation, Ahmad guaranteed that the overall debt situation has much improved since 2022.

Remittances have been leveling off and are projected to reach $35 billion by the end of this fiscal year, according to Mr. Jameel, who spoke about foreign exchange inflows. Additionally, exports are improving, but he urged greater efforts to boost export volumes, which are crucial for lowering dependency on remittances.

Prioritize SMEs and export growth.

“Achieving sustainable economic growth will depend on increasing exports and reducing dependency on remittances,” Jameel Ahmad stated.

Additionally, the SBP governor emphasized that foreign exchange reserves are being used efficiently to satisfy the needs of international businesses and investors. Pakistan gave $330 million in dividends and earnings to foreign investors in 2023, and by 2024, that amount had increased to $2.2 billion.

He also emphasized the government’s significant emphasis on growing the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) sector, which he thinks would be essential to economic growth. SME loans up to Rs 10 million can now be obtained under the new regulations without collateral.

Additionally, the government has increased the loan target for SMEs from Rs 543 billion to Rs 1,100 billion, and banks have been directed to lend an additional Rs 100 billion to SMEs each year.

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