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Rupee to recover against dollar as Pakistan gets ready to seal IMF deal

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  • Govt serious about taking prior actions to sign SLA.
  • Rupee gains 2.18% against dollar this week.
  • Market remains hopeful that IMF agreement will proceed.

KARACHI: The rupee is expected to start its recovery drive against the US dollar as the government’s efforts to secure the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) bailout programme has boosted the market’s positive sentiments and due to an increase in dollar supply, The News reported Sunday citing traders and analysts. 

The government seems serious about taking some prior actions that could help meet the IMF conditions to seal the state-level agreement with the global lender. 

During the outgoing week, the local currency gained about 2.18% against the greenback in the interbank market, raising from 275.30 on Monday to 269.28 on Friday.

Although no agreement to unlock the funds from a $6.5 billion bailout was achieved between Islamabad and the IMF during the fund’s 10-day visit, both parties concurred to continue long negotiations because the South Asian nation’s worsening economic crisis does not appear to have a quick resolution.

Pakistan must come to an agreement with the IMF for further money to secure more aid, avoid default, and rebuild foreign currency reserves that have decreased to $2.9 billion.

The stock market embarked on a selling binge, but there was no reaction to both sides’ failure to reach a staff-level accord. It increases the IMF timeframe by at least another 10–12 days and, given the rate at which reserves are depleting, constitutes a serious concern.

Despite a setback, the market remains hopeful that the IMF agreement will proceed, particularly given the several harsh “prior actions” Pakistan has already done.

“As the IMF needs to see some progress on the terms, the staff-level agreement (SLA) is still not in place. In about a week, the SLA might be signed and then sent to the IMF board for final approval. Overall, progress that is good,” said a currency dealer.

A positive effect is happening in the currency market by the exporters, due to dual movement in the currency, who are realising export proceeds, and providing much-needed liquidity in the market, according to Tresmark’s client note.

“For the first time in many months, the market also witnessed material selling in the forward tenors by exporters. In the grey market the last quote was 280/282 and there is some panic there as well as speculators want to book their profits and exit the market,” it said.

There was still a substantial backlog of imports and payments, which would exceed any inflow of export proceeds. But in the medium term, and given that the IMF agreement would go ahead with follow-up from friendly countries and multilateral institutions, demand might go to take a huge hit, it added.

“With that, entities involved in the export business will see a boom where as those in the import business will witness a bust. In the short term the market may stay above the 270/$ level, but may fall back to 262/$ level in the medium term,” the client note stated.

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Finance Minister Meets With World Leaders at World Economic Forum in Davos

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During his attendance at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb has met with officials of organisations and leaders of many nations.
Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor, Muhammad Younas, met with Mohammad Aurangzeb.
On the fringes of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2025 Opening Banquet, there was an informal meeting.
Additionally, the Finance Minister met with Anwar Ibrahim, the Prime Minister of Malaysia.
Both leaders discussed economic cooperation and bilateral ties.
Muhammad Aurangzeb also had a meeting with Dp World’s Rizwan Soomro and Yuvraj Narayan.
They talked about how to strengthen Pakistan’s logistics and infrastructure systems to support trade.
“The Pakistani government is committed to advancing joint projects and values partnerships in both business-to-business and business-to-government cooperation,” the finance minister added.

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China will establish a $250 million EV production facility in Pakistan.

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As Islamabad looks to Beijing to work with it to establish industrial zones for the production of electronic vehicles, the media said Wednesday that China’s ADM Group would invest $250 million to establish an electric vehicle manufacturing unit in Pakistan.

With an even more ambitious target of 90 percent by 2040, the Pakistani government established the National Electric Vehicles Policy (NEVP) in 2019 with the goal of having 30 percent of all passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks be electric by 2030.

By 2030, the policy aimed to achieve 50% of new sales for two- and three-wheelers and buses, and by 2040, 90%.

As part of the Special Investment Facilitation Council’s efforts to draw in foreign investment, Radio Pakistan reported that the Chinese company ADM Group had announced an investment of $250 million to establish an EV manufacturing plant in Pakistan.

“The switch to EVs is anticipated to save billions of dollars by reducing the cost of fuel imports.”

More than 3,000 electric vehicle charging stations will be installed throughout Pakistan, a South Asian nation, as part of ADM Group’s $350 million investment in the EV industry last year.

Pakistan announced earlier this month that, as part of its ongoing energy sector reform aimed at increasing demand, it would reduce the power rate for operators of electric vehicle charging stations by 45 percent.

Additionally, financial programs for e-bikes and the conversion of gasoline-powered two- and three-wheeled vehicles are planned by the government.

On January 15, the government approved a lower tariff of 39.70 rupees ($0.14) per unit, which will take effect in a month. The previous tariff was 71.10 rupees.

The government anticipates that investors in the industry will see an internal rate of return of over 20 percent.

There are currently over 30 million two- and three-wheeled cars in Pakistan, and they use more than $5 billion worth of petroleum each year, according to a report that Power Ministry adviser Ammar Habib Khan provided to the government and that was covered by Reuters.

The paper estimates that the ministry will save around $165 million in gasoline import expenses each year by converting 1 million two-wheelers to electric motorcycles in a first phase, at an estimated net cost of 40,000 rupees per bike.

In September, BYD Pakistan, a joint venture between China’s BYD and the Pakistani automaker Mega Motors, informed Reuters that, in accordance with international goals, up to 50% of all vehicles purchased in Pakistan by 2030 will be electrified in some way.

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The government has introduced a comprehensive strategy to enhance industrial investment.

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Authorities are poised to execute an ambitious investment promotion strategy through a collaborative initiative between the National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) and the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, aiming for substantial enhancements in industrial investment and economic development.

The Special Investment Facilitation Center (SIFC) will be instrumental in this transformative drive by establishing “Business Facilitation Centers” aimed at optimizing investment processes and attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Principal features of the comprehensive plan encompass:

  1. Forming collaborative working groups to augment domestic and international investment prospects
  2. Formulating a comprehensive strategy to eradicate obstacles to industrial development
  3. Formulating a novel model to tackle issues in the execution of industrial projects
  4. Striving to enhance Pakistan’s international business rating by 50 points
    Targeting $20 billion in foreign industrial investments within the next five years.

The approach prioritizes digital transformation to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the investment process. SIFC’s strategy emphasizes fostering a favorable atmosphere for investors by streamlining bureaucratic processes and offering strategic assistance.

National administration officers are conducting ongoing study to identify and mitigate potential investment barriers, while a specialized research group is formulating a comprehensive strategy to solve current hurdles in industrial growth.

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