Rupee gains on expectations of a fresh loan tranche from IMF.
Analysts anticipate rupee will rise further.
KARACHI: October’s best-performing currency continued to gain against the US dollar Tuesday on expectations of a fresh loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the local unit gained Rs0.24, or 0.11%, against the greenback in the interbank market, closing at 220.65 compared to Monday’s close of 220.89.
Rupee regained ground following a decline in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) index in September and on expectations of a fresh loan tranche from the Washington-based lender.
REER index depreciated to 90.9 in September, compared with 94.4 in the previous month, the State Bank of Pakistan reported on Sunday. The REER index shows the rupee might strengthen further in the coming days.
In addition, the expectation that Pakistan would meet its obligations to pay off its foreign debt on schedule contributed to a surge in the price of Pakistani sovereign bonds, which helped buoy sentiments regarding the local unit.
Analysts anticipate that the rupee will rise further as soon as World Bank inflows begin coming in as well. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is in Beijing to hold talks on the rollover of Chinese loans, which now total $26.7 billion and include public and publicly guaranteed debt.
From Asia’s worst to best-performing currency
The Pakistani rupee had one of the strongest performances in Asia in October, rising by 3.3% against the dollar.
The Pakistani currency was closely followed by the Singapore dollar which appreciated by 1.38%, the Philippine peso (1.15%), and South Korean won (0.46%).
The rupee had a successful month. In October, the rupee value increased by 3.3%, said Topline Securities, which cited statistics from Bloomberg. The rupee was one of the best-performing currencies in Asia, it added.
After hitting historic lows in value in both July and August, the rupee suddenly began to appreciate in the final week of September. It started appreciating following the start of Ishaq Dar’s fourth term as Pakistan’s finance minister.
However, the local unit was under pressure on account of the political unrest brought on by the start of the PTI-long march towards Islamabad.
The rupee was able to gain ground thanks to Dar’s recent warning to speculators about currency manipulation and the decline of the REER.
Through the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), Pakistan’s trade connections with Saudi Arabia have grown significantly, with bilateral trade volume rising from $546 million to $700 million and exports to the Kingdom growing by 22%.
As bilateral economic cooperation continues to grow, Saudi investors have shown a strong interest in Pakistan’s construction, energy, agricultural, and information technology sectors. The objective for exporting IT services between the two countries has been raised from $50 million to $100 million.
Saudi Arabia has set up a help desk dedicated to making it easier for Pakistani IT companies to register in the Kingdom in order to expedite commercial procedures. The goal of this program is to speed up economic collaborations between the two countries and lower administrative barriers.
The well-known Saudi restaurant chain AlBaik has revealed plans to open locations in Pakistan, which is a big step for the food service industry and should lead to the creation of new job possibilities in the area.
Officials have noted that stronger business links between the two countries lead to greater economic stability, and the SIFC has played a crucial role in promoting these trade advancements. For bilateral trade and investment projects, the Council remains a crucial facilitator.
According to a trade official with knowledge of the developments, “the establishment of dedicated support mechanisms, such as the help desk for IT companies, demonstrates a commitment to long-term economic partnership,” The goal of these programs is to improve the conditions for commercial collaboration between the two nations.
The increasing amount of trade and the diversity of investment sectors show that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan’s economic ties are changing as both countries seek to deepen their business alliances in a number of industries.
After more than 50 years, the two governments will resume direct bilateral trade, with Bangladesh’s food ministry announcing Sunday that it will receive a supply of 25,000 tonnes of rice from Pakistan next month.
After former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina was overthrown last August, relations between Bangladesh and Pakistan have begun to improve after decades of tense relations.
Since then, there have been increased bilateral interactions between Bangladesh and Pakistan. Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, the interim government’s senior adviser, has met twice with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
According to the food ministry, Dhaka completed an agreement earlier this month to import grains from Pakistan.
“On March 3, the first shipment of 25,000 tonnes will reach Bangladesh,” Zia Uddin Ahmed, a ministry assistant secretary, told Arab News.
“This is the first time that Bangladesh has started importing rice from Pakistan at the government-to-government level since 1971.”
Following direct maritime contact between the two South Asian countries in November—a Pakistani cargo ship stopped in Bangladesh for the first time since 1971 with imports and exports arranged by private companies—their trade relations grew.
Resuming trade with Pakistan is a significant step for Bangladesh, according to Amena Mohsin, a lecturer at North South University and a specialist in international relations.
“We want to see progress in our bilateral relationship with Pakistan. Most significantly, we are currently going through a low point dispute with India, even though we constantly diversify our partnerships.
This most recent move to purchase rice from Pakistan is really significant in this context,” she told Arab News.
As of February 14, Pakistan’s total liquid foreign reserves were $15,947.9 million, with the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) holdings being $11,201.5 million.
Official figures for the week ending February 14, 2025, show that the central bank’s liquid foreign exchange reserves rose by $35 million to $11,201.5 million.
Commercial banks maintained net foreign reserves of $4,746.4 million during the period under review, according to the breakdown of foreign reserves.
The nation’s total liquid foreign reserves as of the week ending February 07, 2025, were $15,862.6 million.
Of these, the central bank held $11,166.6 million in foreign reserves, while commercial banks kept $4,696 million in net reserves.