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SBP jacks up key rate to record high of 22% after withdrawal of guidance on imports

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1 year ago

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  • Since Jan 2022, SBP has raised rates by a total of 1,250bps.
  • Says decision necessary to keep real interest rate in positive territory.
  • Also states decision would help “anchor inflation expectations”.

Following withdrawal of its guidance on imports, the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Monday decided to jack up the policy rate by 100bps to 22% in an emergency meeting days after it had announced no change in the interest rate. 

Since January 2022, the central bank has raised rates by a total of 1,250bps.

In a statement, the MPC explained the contest of the emergency meeting as in the last meeting on June 12 it had decided not to jack up the policy rate. Back then it had viewed it as appropriate to achieve the objective of price stability “barring any unexpected domestic and external shocks”.

However, the SBP said that it has now decided to increase the interest rate because of “two important domestic developments” that have “slightly deteriorated inflation outlook and which could potentially increase pressure on the already stressed external account”.

“First, there are certain upward revisions in taxes, duties and PDL rate in FY24 budget as approved by the National Assembly on June 25. Second, the SBP, on June 23, withdrew its general guidance for commercial banks on prioritisation of imports,” the MPC said. It added that the withdrawal of the guideline on imports was “necessary” due to the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but has “increased the upside risks to the inflation outlook”.

“The committee views that additional tax measures are likely to contribute to inflation both directly and indirectly, while the relaxation in imports may exert pressures in the foreign exchange market. The latter may result in higher-than-earlier anticipated exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices,” it further added.

“With this background, the MPC convened an emergency meeting to respond to these developments. The MPC decided to raise the policy rate by 100 bps to 22 per cent, effective 27th June 2023,” said the central bank. It added the decision was “necessary to keep real interest rate firmly in the positive territory on a forward-looking basis”.

The central bank also believes that the decision would help “anchor inflation expectations” and “support bringing down inflation towards the medium-term target of 5–7% by the end of FY25”.

“The MPC views that today’s decision — along with the expected completion of the ongoing IMF program and the government adhering to the target of generating a primary surplus in FY24 would help in addressing external sector vulnerabilities and reduce economic uncertainty. The committee reiterated that it would continue to carefully monitor evolving economic developments and stands ready, if necessary, to take appropriate action to achieve the objective of price stability over the medium term,” the SBP said. 

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Gold prices in Pakistan approach an all-time high.

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19 hours ago

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Following a substantial surge the prior day, gold prices in Pakistan are ascending to unprecedented levels with an additional gain on Thursday, coinciding with a rise in global precious metal rates.

The price of 24-karat gold in the local market rose by Rs700 per tola, reaching Rs277,900, as reported by the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA).

Likewise, the cost of 10 grams of 24-karat gold increased by Rs600, currently priced at Rs238,254.

Globally, gold prices exhibited an upward trend, increasing by $7 throughout the day. The APGJSA reports that the international gold price was $2,682 per ounce.

Notwithstanding the increase in gold prices, the silver market exhibited stability, with the price of silver maintained at Rs3,050 per tola.

In the previous month, gold prices in Pakistan reached an unprecedented high of Rs 277,000 a tola, driven by substantial gains in the worldwide market.

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World Bank: Power industry subsidies soar by 400% in just five years.

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20 hours ago

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Ninety-four percent of domestic customers will benefit from the budgetary subsidy in 2024, according to a World Bank report, which credits the increase in protected consumers with contributing to the weight of subsidies.

In the current fiscal year, the electricity sector subsidy has increased by an astounding Rs. 954 billion, from Rs. 236 billion in the 2020 fiscal year to Rs. 1190 billion.

Notwithstanding changes, the circular debt has averaged Rs. 400 billion yearly over the last four years due to the incapacity to minimize losses and inadequate recovery of electricity payments.

According to the World Bank, the government must solve the fundamental problems in the power industry in order to lower the burden of subsidies and circular debt, as rising electricity prices and inadequate tax collection will only serve to worsen the circular debt crisis.

The rise in Pakistan’s power sector circular debt has raised worries from the World Bank (WB) despite an unprecedented increase in energy pricing.

Within the last six years, the debt has grown by 1241 billion rupees, according to the World Bank’s study. Between 2019 and 2021, the debt climbed by 1128 billion rupees.

The electricity sector’s circular debt has been increasing at an alarming rate, according to a World Bank analysis. Between 2022 and 2024, there was a substantial increase of 113 billion rupees.

Pakistan’s electricity industry has 2393 billion rupees in total circular debt as of 2024.

Restructuring is required to solve the circular debt issue, according to the World Bank.

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Business

Final settlement: Govt to pay five IPPs Rs 72 billion.

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20 hours ago

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On October 10, Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif declared that the agreements with five IPPS would be terminated in the first phase. Sources claim that the government will give Rs 15.5 billion to Rousch Power and Rs 36.5 billion to Hubco.

In a same vein, the federal government would pay Lalpir Power Rs 12.8 billion, Atlas Power Rs 15.5 billion, and Sapphire Power Rs 6 billion.

The sources state that late payment fees are not included in the settlement. With effect from October 1, the agreements with the five IPPs will be considered officially ended.

PM Shehbaz earlier remarked that the termination was carried out with the owners of the IPPs’ mutual permission while presiding over the federal cabinet meeting in Islamabad.

The Prime Minister notified the Cabinet that the only money that will be paid, interest-free, to these IPPs is the outstanding balance.

According to him, the national exchequer will gain over 411 billion rupees from the termination of these contracts, while power customers will save roughly sixty billion rupees.

According to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, it was the result of the arduous teamwork of the entire government. In this regard, he also acknowledged the contributions and assistance of the associated parties. He specifically mentioned General Asim Munir, the Chief of Army Staff, who showed a personal interest in the situation.

The prime minister characterized the development as the start of a trip that will ultimately lead to the advancement and prosperity of the populace.

PM Shehbaz Sharif also brought up the assistance that the Punjabi and Federal governments gave to power users over the summer.

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