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Smuggling of US dollars to Afghanistan harming Pakistan’s economy: currency dealer

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  • About $2bn goes to Afghanistan in form of official, unofficial trade.
  • Both Afghan, Pakistani traders are involved in this activity.
  • Afghan transit trade, smuggling burdening Pakistan’s forex reserves.

KARACHI: The Pakistani currency is under pressure owing to the ongoing political unrest in the country and the smuggling of US dollars to Afghanistan, The News reported Tuesday citing foreign exchange dealers.

“Pakistan is currently dealing with problems on several fronts, the political crisis being the first and biggest one. The dollar crisis is also connected with it,” said Malik Bostan, the chairman of the Exchange Companies Association of Pakistan (ECAP) at a news conference.

About $2 billion goes to Afghanistan from Pakistan in the form of official and unofficial trade, misuse of Afghan transit trade, smuggling and through the borders, said Bostan, adding that these factors are burdening Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves.

Currently, Pakistan’s economy is suffering irreparable harm because of the Afghan transit trade, which has grown significantly. A significant portion of the dollars travelling from Pakistan to Afghanistan passes through the Afghan transit trade, and both Afghan and Pakistani traders are involved in this anti-national activity, he added.

To lower the import bill, the government imposed high duties on many luxury goods.

“Our traders and importers thought that why should they pay a 200% duty to the Pakistani government,” Bostan said, and added they operate a global network, accepting payments through hundi/hawala in Dubai, London, Europe, America, Saudi Arabia, and everywhere else. 

They bring their items here in the name of Afghan transit, travelling from our port to Afghanistan and then returning to Pakistan in small trucks. Numerous importers from Pakistan who participate in this atrocious practice not only fail to pay import duties, which costs the national exchequer billions of rupees, but also prevent dollars from entering the country, he said. 

When the Afghan Taliban established a transition government in August 2021, the Pakistani rupee was trading at 155, the country’s foreign exchange reserves were $22 billion, and its import bill was $4.5 billion. According to Bostan, today the rupee has fallen to almost 225 in the interbank market and 235 per dollar in the free market.

He claimed that every month, about $3 billion in remittances were sent to Pakistan. The remittance flows have now decreased to $2 billion. “Where does this monthly $1 billion go? Because we are paying remittances at 225 rupees for every dollar, this $1 billion per month has become the sight of Afghan transit. The hawala/hundi operators are giving those 270 for every dollar,” said the chairman. 

Bostan said there are just three major international companies with which the exchange companies have signed money transfer agreements at the present. “We have requested that SBP let exchange companies negotiate partnerships with at least 50 significant global money transfer firms,” Bostan said. 

“Exchange companies receive roughly $2 billion in worker remittances each year, and in terms of exporting foreign currency, these companies provided about $3 billion to Pakistani banks last year. The exchange companies are significantly contributing to the stabilisation of Pakistan’s reserve, the Pakistani rupee, and the Pakistani economy by relinquishing it in the interbank market,” he said. 

“If the government gives us an agreement with 50 international money transfers companies, the exchange companies can bring $7 to $8 billion to Pakistan annually.”

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China will establish a $250 million EV production facility in Pakistan.

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As Islamabad looks to Beijing to work with it to establish industrial zones for the production of electronic vehicles, the media said Wednesday that China’s ADM Group would invest $250 million to establish an electric vehicle manufacturing unit in Pakistan.

With an even more ambitious target of 90 percent by 2040, the Pakistani government established the National Electric Vehicles Policy (NEVP) in 2019 with the goal of having 30 percent of all passenger cars and heavy-duty trucks be electric by 2030.

By 2030, the policy aimed to achieve 50% of new sales for two- and three-wheelers and buses, and by 2040, 90%.

As part of the Special Investment Facilitation Council’s efforts to draw in foreign investment, Radio Pakistan reported that the Chinese company ADM Group had announced an investment of $250 million to establish an EV manufacturing plant in Pakistan.

“The switch to EVs is anticipated to save billions of dollars by reducing the cost of fuel imports.”

More than 3,000 electric vehicle charging stations will be installed throughout Pakistan, a South Asian nation, as part of ADM Group’s $350 million investment in the EV industry last year.

Pakistan announced earlier this month that, as part of its ongoing energy sector reform aimed at increasing demand, it would reduce the power rate for operators of electric vehicle charging stations by 45 percent.

Additionally, financial programs for e-bikes and the conversion of gasoline-powered two- and three-wheeled vehicles are planned by the government.

On January 15, the government approved a lower tariff of 39.70 rupees ($0.14) per unit, which will take effect in a month. The previous tariff was 71.10 rupees.

The government anticipates that investors in the industry will see an internal rate of return of over 20 percent.

There are currently over 30 million two- and three-wheeled cars in Pakistan, and they use more than $5 billion worth of petroleum each year, according to a report that Power Ministry adviser Ammar Habib Khan provided to the government and that was covered by Reuters.

The paper estimates that the ministry will save around $165 million in gasoline import expenses each year by converting 1 million two-wheelers to electric motorcycles in a first phase, at an estimated net cost of 40,000 rupees per bike.

In September, BYD Pakistan, a joint venture between China’s BYD and the Pakistani automaker Mega Motors, informed Reuters that, in accordance with international goals, up to 50% of all vehicles purchased in Pakistan by 2030 will be electrified in some way.

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The government has introduced a comprehensive strategy to enhance industrial investment.

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Authorities are poised to execute an ambitious investment promotion strategy through a collaborative initiative between the National Institute of Public Administration (NIPA) and the Pakistan Administrative Staff College, aiming for substantial enhancements in industrial investment and economic development.

The Special Investment Facilitation Center (SIFC) will be instrumental in this transformative drive by establishing “Business Facilitation Centers” aimed at optimizing investment processes and attracting both domestic and foreign capital.

Principal features of the comprehensive plan encompass:

  1. Forming collaborative working groups to augment domestic and international investment prospects
  2. Formulating a comprehensive strategy to eradicate obstacles to industrial development
  3. Formulating a novel model to tackle issues in the execution of industrial projects
  4. Striving to enhance Pakistan’s international business rating by 50 points
    Targeting $20 billion in foreign industrial investments within the next five years.

The approach prioritizes digital transformation to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the investment process. SIFC’s strategy emphasizes fostering a favorable atmosphere for investors by streamlining bureaucratic processes and offering strategic assistance.

National administration officers are conducting ongoing study to identify and mitigate potential investment barriers, while a specialized research group is formulating a comprehensive strategy to solve current hurdles in industrial growth.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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