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Stocks fall as delay in IMF talks, Saudi crown prince visit weigh

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  • Investors concerned as world commodities rise.
  • Shelving of Saudi crown prince visit dents sentiment.
  • Losses led by exploration and production sector stocks.

KARACHI: Stocks Monday got off to a bad start to close the first day of the week weaker as investors weighed a reported holdup on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) front amid ongoing political uncertainties.

After remaining soaked in the red ink, the whole day, Pakistan Stock Exchange’s (PSX) benchmark KSE-100 shares index settled at 42,851 after losing 242 points or 0.56% compared to the last closing on Friday.

Benchmark KSE-100 index intra-day trading curve. — PSX data portal
Benchmark KSE-100 index intra-day trading curve. — PSX data portal

Topline Securities in a note said a delay in Pakistan-IMF talks, rescheduling of the Saudi crown prince’s visit and a rally in the global commodity markets where international oil prices were trading up over 3%.

During the day, exploration and production, fertiliser and technology sector stocks contributed negatively to the index.

Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Oil and Gas Development Company, Pakistan Services Limited, Engro Corporation, and Pakistan Oil Fields lost 141 points, cumulatively.

On the flip side, TRG Pakistan, Lotte Chemical, and Habib Bank Limited together added 133 points.

Darson Research said stocks went downhill from the word ‘go’. 

“Earlier, as the equities started going down volatility emerged immediately, resulting in a selling spree that pulled the index below the 43,0000-point mark,” the brokerage said.

Over 185 million shares traded today at the bourse while the total value clocked in at Rs6 billion. Hascol Petroleum led the volumes chart with a trade of 26.5 million shares. Stocks that contributed significantly to the volumes are Hascol Petroleum, Pakistan Tobacco Company, Lotte Chemical, TRG Pakistan, and WorldCall Telecom.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) in its post-market analysis said the trade commenced with a negative gap and proceeded to hit an intraday low of 42,761.88 points due to a lack of investor participation. 

“Mainboard activity remained flat as the third-tier stocks continued to be the volume leaders,” the AHL report said.

Sectors that dragged the index down turned out to be exploration and production (-86.5 points), cement (-38.4 points), fertiliser (-37.2 points), commercial banks (-37 points), and miscellaneous (-31.3 points).

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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