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Trade deficit recedes by 30pc in July-Nov as imports dip

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  • Imports drop by 20.15% in July-November.
  • 33.6% imports dip in November 2022.
  • Services trade deficit receded by 38%.

ISLAMABAD: The country’s trade deficit in the first five months of ongoing fiscal year 2022-23 fell by 30.14% to $14.4 billion due to a drop in non-essential imports, The News reported Friday. 

According to the monthly trade bulletin of the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), the imports in July-November dropped by 20.15% to $26.34 billion from $32.98 billion in the same period last year.

However, exports were also reduced by 3.5% in the same period to $11.93 billion against $12.36 billion in the same period last year, the PBS said Thursday.

Compared to November 2021, Pakistan imported 33.6% fewer goods and sold 18.3% fewer products abroad in November 2022. In November 2022, exports dropped by 18.34% to $2.37 billion from $2.9 billion in the same month in 2021, while imports dropped 33.6% to $5.245 billion from $7.9 billion in November 2021.

The trade deficit was narrowed by 42.46% to $2.88 billion from $4.99 billion in the same month last year.

A downward trend has been witnessed in the import bill since the beginning of the current fiscal year as imports fell by 10.4% in July, 7.7% in August, 19.7% in September, 27.2% in October and 33.6% in November over their respective corresponding months of 2021, PBS trade bulletin revealed.

Comparing monthly trade performance with the previous month (October), goods exports in November 2022 fell 0.63% from $2.38 billion last month, while imports increased 11.34% compared to October’s $4.7 billion.

Experts predict the export bill might not touch the $29 billion threshold in 2022-23. The average monthly exports in the first five months of the fiscal year are $2.386 billion. The export growth has been affected by local constraints and the slowdown of world economies. Economic policies such as costly bank financing, rupee devaluation, and expensive input costs alongside political instability have played a significant role in the export drop.

It is pertinent to mention that in the last fiscal 2021-22, the economy accumulated a record-high trade deficit of $48.38 billion, registering over a 31% upsurge over the fiscal year 2020-21.

Trade in Services

The PBS also issued economic performance data on trade in services with other countries. The services trade deficit receded by 38% to $812 million against $1.31 billion a year ago in the first four months of the fiscal year. From July to October, services exports increased by 3.97% to $2.26 billion, and imports dropped by 11.8% to $3.1 billion.

Services exports in October 2022 increased by 1.14% to $559 million, while imports dropped by 26% to $730 million against exports of $553 million and imports of $986 million in October 2021. Yearly, the services trade deficit lowered by 60.55% to $171 million in October 2022 against $433 million in October 2021.

PBS data shows that the services exports declined by 2.1% and imports by 1% over the previous month. In September 2022, Pakistan earned $571 million by selling its services abroad, while local businesses hired services worth $737 million from overseas service providers, registering a $166 million deficit.

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Barrick CEO: Reko Diq mine will provide $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

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Based on consensus long-term prices, the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Pakistan is anticipated to produce almost $74 billion in free cash flow over the next 37 years, according to the CEO of joint owner Barrick Gold, who made this statement in a media interview.

Half of the Reko Diq mine is owned by Barrick Gold, with the remaining 50% being owned by the province of Balochistan and the Pakistani government.

The development of the mine is anticipated to have a major impact on Pakistan’s faltering economy, and Barrick views it as one of the greatest untapped copper-gold zones in the world.

A protracted conflict that ended in 2022 caused the project to be delayed, although it is anticipated that production will begin by the end of 2028. In its initial phase, it will cost an estimated $5.5 billion and generate 200,000 tons of copper annually.

In an interview with the media, Barrick CEO Mark Bristow stated that the first phase should be finished by 2029.

He said that production will increase in a second phase, which is expected to cost $3.5 billion.

Although the mine’s reserves are estimated to last 37 years, Bristow stated that with improvements and additions, the mine’s useful life may be significantly extended.

Pakistan, which now has just about $11 billion in foreign reserves, could receive substantial dividends, royalties, and taxes from a free cash flow of $74 billion.

Additionally, Barrick is negotiating with infrastructure providers and railway authorities to renovate the coal terminal in Port Qasim, which is located outside of Karachi, Pakistan, in order to provide infrastructure for the domestic and international transportation of copper.

The project is on schedule, according to Bristow, with surveys, fencing, and lodging already finished.

In the next two quarters, the Saudi mining corporation Manara Minerals may make an investment in Pakistan’s Reko Diq mine, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik stated last week.

Manara executives traveled to Pakistan in May of last year to discuss purchasing a share in the project. Additionally, Pakistan is discussing mining prospects with other Gulf nations, according to Malik.

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According to projections made by the World Bank, Pakistan’s gross domestic product will expand by 2.8% during the fiscal year 2024-25.

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A significant gain of 0.5% from its previous estimate of 2.3% in June 2024, the World Bank has updated its forecast for the growth of Pakistan’s gross domestic product for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 2.8%.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a growth rate of 3%, and our prediction falls short of that projection. Additionally, the government’s goal growth rate of 3.6% is lower than this prediction.

Pakistan’s growth is still relatively slow in comparison to that of its neighbors in the region, as stated in the World Bank’s World Economic Prospects Report 2025.

With a growth rate of 6.7%, India is anticipated to top the South Asian region. Bhutan, with a growth rate of 7.2%, Maldives, with a growth rate of 4.7%, Nepal, with a growth rate of 5.1%, Bangladesh, with a growth rate of 4.1%, and Sri Lanka, with a growth rate of 3.5% should follow.

The findings of the analysis reveal that although Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of minor improvement, it is still confronted with substantial obstacles. The nation’s foreign exchange reserves have been strengthened as a result of the fact that inflation, which had reached double digits in previous years, has now fallen to single digits for the first time since 2021.

Following the elections that took place in February 2024, the administration has implemented stringent fiscal and monetary policies, which have contributed to a reduction in uncertainty. This improvement can be linked to these policies.

It is anticipated that Pakistan’s per capita income will continue to be low until the year 2026, according to the World Bank, despite the fact that some favorable improvements have occurred. Not only does this reflect broader regional patterns, but it also underscores the fact that Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also facing comparable issues.

The rising weight of debt was another topic that was brought up in the report. It is anticipated that interest payments will increase in both Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The ratio of Pakistan’s debt to its gross domestic product is expected to steadily decrease, assuming that the government continues to uphold its commitment to the existing loan arrangement with the International Monetary Fund. A warning was issued by the World Bank, stating that any deviation from the program might have a significant impact on the economic operations of the country. The World Bank emphasized the significance of complying to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Despite the fact that the country’s inflation rate has been moderated and its reserves have been strengthened, experts have pointed out that the implementation of structural reforms and the management of external debt are the most important factors in determining the country’s long-term economic stability.

According to a report published by the World Bank, Pakistan needs to provide consistent policies and a stable macroeconomic environment in order to maintain investor confidence.

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SIFC and UNICEF Collaborate on Youth Training: $1.5 Million Girls’ Education Agreement

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A deal between UNICEF and the Muslim World League has been signed to start the “Green Skills Training Program,” which would equip young people with digital and sustainable development skills.
With the help of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the program will provide educational and employment opportunities to economically disadvantaged youth, particularly girls.
One and a half million dollars have been committed by the Muslim World League to support Pakistani girls’ education and training. The program’s goal is to give young people the tools they need to have a sustainable future.
This program is a component of a 14-year partnership between UNICEF and the Muslim World League, which has aimed to enhance the lives of children in numerous nations. The program will improve vocational training and provide Pakistani youth with economic opportunities through SIFC’s assistance.

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