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Major dip in exports and imports in July shrinks trade deficit

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  • Pakistani exports and imports fell by double digits in July.
  • July trade bulletin reveals goods exports amounted to over $2bn. 
  • Decline partly attributed to import ban to manage dollar shortage.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani exports and imports fell by double digits in July, registering a major decline as compared to the previous month, The News reported, citing the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data.

As per the PBS data, the exports dropped 12.7% in the first month of the current fiscal, while the month-on-month drop was 8.6%.

PBS data showed that imports also witnessed a substantial decrease of 13.75% compared to the previous month and 26.4% compared to the same month a year ago.

The trade bulletin for July 2023 revealed that goods exports amounted to $2.057 billion, down from $2.356 billion in June 2023 and $2.25 billion in July 2022. Meanwhile, goods imports in July 2023 were valued at $3.66 billion, down from $4.2 billion in June 2023 and $4.98 billion in July 2022.

This decrease in imports helped reduce the trade deficit by 41.2% to $1.61 billion in July 2023 compared to $2.73 billion in July 2022.

In June 2023, the trade gap was $1.86 billion.

The decline in imports was partly attributed to the government’s decision to ban several luxury items in an effort to manage the dollar shortage in the economy.

Throughout the fiscal year 2022-23, the country saw a significant reduction in the trade deficit, which shrunk by 43% to $27.55 billion, down from $48.35 billion in the previous fiscal year. During the same period, total exports declined by 12.7%, reaching $27.7 billion, while imports shrank by 31%, amounting to $55.3 billion.

The PBS also reported the services trade performance data for July-June 2022-23. According to the trade statistics for international services during this period, local companies imported more services than they exported.

The trade deficit in services witnessed a remarkable decrease of 87.7%, reaching $719.4 million in FY23 compared to $5.84 billion in FY22.

In FY23, the economy hired the services of foreign companies for $8.02 billion and exported services abroad for $7.3 billion. 

In FY22, the country’s services exports were recorded at $7.1 billion, and imports stood at $12.9 billion, representing an increase of 2.78% in services exports and a 38% decline in imports.

In June 2023, services exports were valued at $571 million, while imports amounted to $655 million, resulting in a deficit of $84 million. In May 2022, exports were recorded at $607 million, imports at $903 million, and the deficit at $296 million. 

During the month under review, services exports decreased by 5.9%, and imports decreased by 27.5% compared to the previous month. Comparing June 2023’sservices to the trade performance of the same month the previous year, exports were down by 14%, and imports shrunk by 50.7%.

In June 2022, services exports amounted to $664 million, and imports reached $1.328 billion, resulting in a deficit of $664.9 million.

In June 2023, the services trade deficit was recorded at $84 million, marking a reduction of 87.4% compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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