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Pakistan rupee outperforms Asian peers against US dolla

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  • Value of other Asian currencies relative to the dollar decreased.
  • Rupee outperformed global currencies, recovering all of its losses in Sept.
  • The crackdown has worked in curbing the open market rate.

As a result of a crackdown on currency smuggling and illegal foreign exchange trade, the Pakistani rupee has become the best-performing currency in Asia so far this fiscal year, The News reported on Tuesday.

According to data based on the MSCI Asia Emerging and Frontier Markets Index released by Topline Securities on Monday, the rupee has appreciated by 1.7% versus the dollar between July 1 and October 9, 2023.

But at the same time, the value of the other Asian currencies relative to the dollar decreased. In relation to the dollar, the Malaysian ringgit plummeted by 1.4%, the Korean won by 2.5%, the Thai baht by 5%, and the Bangladeshi taka by 1.9%.

When Pakistan’s caretaker government took office in August, the currency was under tremendous pressure. But in September, the rupee outperformed global currencies, recovering all of its losses and rising by 6% against the dollar.

On September 5, the rupee plunged to a record low of 307.1 against the dollar, but since the country’s central bank and security forces started taking action the next day to stop black market activity, the rupee has recovered sharply. In just five weeks, the rupee has risen by about 9% against the dollar.

“The crackdown has worked in curbing the open market rate,” said Fahad Rauf, the head of research at Ismail Iqbal Securities. “The economic fundamentals have not changed. Any further appreciation would probably create another bubble. SBP should step in to buy dollars and encourage exporters,” he added.

In addition to a crackdown on illegal dollar transactions, the State Bank of Pakistan’s structural reforms related to foreign exchange companies, exporters selling dollars, and panic selling by hoarders have allowed the rupee to retain its upward trend.

The rupee closed at 281.65 per dollar in the interbank market on Monday. It ended at 282.69 in the previous session. Analysts expect the rupee to surpass the 280 per dollar level in the coming days. This assumption is due to a number of factors, including: the IMF appears to be moving towards approval; another tranche will give the rupee wings; the closure of the Afghan border has reduced smuggling, especially of gold, which was the primary means of wealth transfer; the current account is expected to show a surplus; and remittances are anticipated to come as a pleasant surprise.

The government’s attempts to eliminate the abuse of the Afghan Transit Trade (ATT) and the continued decline in oil prices will be very advantageous to the balance of payments, strengthening the rupee.

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It is anticipated that 150 ships would arrive at Gwadar by the year 2045, allowing the port to handle fifty percent of all imports.

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In an effort to strengthen the port’s economic importance, the Federal Government has made the decision to direct fifty percent of all imports from the public sector to Gwadar Port.

By taking this action, which has the backing of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, the port’s financial situation is going to be improved.

The Cabinet will be presented with a summary of imports through Gwadar by the Ministry of Maritime Affairs, which will take place after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent trip to China.

When the next Cabinet Meeting takes place, Ahsan Iqbal, the Federal Minister for Planning, Development, and Special Initiatives, will examine the Chinese offer for the Karachi to Hyderabad Section of the ML-1 Project and bring it to the Cabinet.

Company preparations for the Shanghai International Import Expo, which will take place in November 2024, are being made by the Board of Investment and the Ministry of Commerce of Pakistan.

One of the most important aspects of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is the Gwadar port, which serves as a significant commerce route connecting China, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. At this time, the Gwadar Port is able to accommodate two huge ships, and by the year 2045, it is anticipated that it would be able to handle up to 150 ships.

By developing the Gwadar Port, regional connectivity would be improved, employment will be created, and international investment will be attracted.

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The price of gold in Pakistan has experienced a significant surge.

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Gold prices in Pakistan surged significantly on Thursday following two consecutive days of decline, with the price per tola rising by Rs2,000 to reach Rs262,100. This increase was in accordance with the downward trend in international market values.

The All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association (APGJSA) reported that the price of 10 grams of 24-karat gold rose by Rs1,714, reaching Rs224,708.

Conversely, the world gold market experienced an upward trajectory. According to the APGJSA, the global price of gold surged to $2,503 per ounce following a $22 gain during the trading session.

The local market experienced a significant decline in silver prices, decreasing from Rs50 to Rs2,900 per tola after a prolonged period.

The local market’s gold prices remain subject to the ever-changing dynamics of the international market, as well as domestic considerations such as currency exchange rates and domestic demand.

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The government has not met the deadline set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the approval of a $7 billion loan.

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On Tuesday night, there were virtual talks between representatives of the Finance Ministry and the IMF delegation, with the main topics being external finance and income generation.

According to people familiar with the situation, no date has been set for the IMF’s Executive Board to approve the loan despite the ongoing negotiations.

Officials from the Finance Ministry informed the IMF mission about the government’s initiatives to get outside funding during the discussions. Updates on loan rollovers and fresh finance commitments from allies were included in this. According to sources, the IMF has received a schedule, and loan rollovers are expected to be finished by the end of next week.

The $12 billion in debt must be rolled over before the loan can be approved by the Executive Board, according to the IMF mission.

In the virtual discussions, representatives of the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) conversed with the IMF team over the revenue deficit. The FBR must reach its revenue goals for this month, according to the IMF mission. As a result, the IMF has asked the FBR to submit a thorough strategy outlining how it will close the gap left by the shortfall and guarantee that revenue goals are reached.

Apart from the conversations on outside funding, there are rumors that the Finance Ministry is actively holding talks with commercial banks in order to obtain new funding. According to reports, negotiations are taking place with four distinct sources for commercial loans, which are anticipated to support the government’s overall financial plan.

Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb disclosed on Tuesday that the IMF was in favor of introducing targeted subsidies. He said that qualifying recipients might receive these subsidies through the Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP).

In order to guarantee consistency, the minister announced that this week’s talks with chief ministers will focus on implementing a similar policy across the country. He was having a casual conversation in parliament with the journalists.

In response to queries about outside funding, Aurangzeb revealed a $2 billion deficit and said that talks to close this gap are progressing. He stressed how crucial it is to obtain business loans.

He went on, “At this point, there’s a need to secure an agreement for commercial loans, not exactly their issuance,” emphasizing that debt rollover negotiations are nearing their conclusion and doing well. The minister expected that these developments would shortly be reported to the governments of allied countries by relevant authorities.

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