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Dollar hovers at two-week low as rate-hike forecasts fade, emphasis on beleaguered yen

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The U.S. dollar held near a two-week low on Monday as investors trimmed bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, while the yen stayed locked near a 40-year low, putting investors on edge over what Tokyo would do next.

The euro bought $1.1435, close to its best level in two weeks, and the pound bought $1.3351 in latest trading. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was at 100.9 early in the trading day.

The yen stood at 161.57 to the dollar, not far from a 1986 low of 162.84 set last week, with traders still concerned of probable intervention after a surprising burst of purchasing momentarily raised the currency on Thursday.

The South Korean won edged higher on the first day of its historic 24-hour onshore spot dollar-won trading. It sold for 1,534 to the dollar.

DOLLAR ON THE DEFENSIVE

The U.S. dollar suffered its largest weekly loss last week since April after the U.S. payrolls report indicated that job growth slowed abruptly in June, lowering market expectations of a rate hike from the Fed.

Still, the fall in the unemployment rate indicates a healthy labour market and should assist preserve Fed tightening expectations, OCBC strategists said.“The broader USD outlook remains constructive,” they wrote, confirming their call for a modest ​2-3% rise in the dollar in the second half of 2026.

Falling oil prices have helped soothe some inflationary concerns, and investors this week will focus on the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting to help evaluate policymakers’ thinking regarding the rates forecast.

Strategists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the minutes might be shorter or less insightful than normal because Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh believes the central bank has offered too much direction in the past.

YEN VIGIL ON

The yen remained in the spotlight, hovering near a 40-year low as the threat of official intervention kept traders on edge, but analysts doubted any move by Tokyo would provide durable assistance.

OCBC strategists said the danger of intervention is more likely to create bouts of volatility and transitory ​corrections rather than a durable reversal in USD/JPY.”Without a meaningful change ​in underlying macro ​fundamentals, verbal warnings and outright intervention alone are unlikely to change the broader direction of the pair,” they concluded. The Japanese policymakers have also broken their tradition of telegraphing risks, suggesting a more targeted drive to squeeze speculators and boost the cost of betting against the yen, which investors are also worried about.Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said, “The market understands about the risk of intervention. “We’re still seeing indications in the options market that some sizable pools of capital have bought short-dated dollar puts to hedge long dollar positions in the event of intervention,” he said.

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As oil rises due to concerns about the Strait of Hormuz closing, gold falls more than 1%.

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– Gold prices slid ‌more than 1% on Monday as fears of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices sharply higher, reviving expectations of elevated interest rates to combat inflationary pressures from escalating hostilities in the Middle ​East.

Spot gold dropped 1.5% to $4,060.36 per ounce by 0541 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August ​delivery were down 1.1% at $4,068.30.

U.S. and Iranian forces have exchanged heavy missile ⁠and drone assaults, with Tehran targeting U.S. facilities in states across the Gulf on Sunday and saying ​it had again closed the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices jumped about 4%, the dollar and ​U.S. Treasury yields climbed, and share markets slipped in Asia.

“Any breakout of violence in the Gulf is accompanied by pressure on gold,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

“The question is, if the ​Strait of Hormuz remains effectively or partially closed, does that lead to a deflationary effect, ​further down the road, that might actually be supportive for gold if you have demand destruction leading to lower ‌economic ⁠activity,” Frappell added.

Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual testimony before Congress as Federal Reserve chair, along with a slate of key U.S. economic data, including June CPI, PPI and retail sales, will be closely watched this week for fresh clues on the economy, inflation and the monetary policy outlook.

Remarks from Fed ​policymakers, including Vice Chair ​Michelle Bowman and Governor ⁠Christopher Waller, later in the day are also in focus as they could provide insights on how inflationary pressures are affecting the central bank’s ​stance on interest rate hikes.

Traders are currently pricing in a 72% chance ​of a ⁠U.S. Fed interest rate hike in September, up from about 63% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. FEDWATCH/ COMEX gold speculators trimmed their net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 in the ⁠week to ​July 7, data released on Friday showed, following three ​consecutive weeks of increases.

Elsewhere, spot silver declined 2.6% to $58.29 per ounce, platinum shed 1.6% to $1,601.92, and palladium fell 2% to $1,251.42

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Oil prices climb as US, Iran fight for control of Hormuz

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muz, one of the most important trade routes for global energy supplies.

US crude oil futures were up 4.1% at $74:33 per barrel as of 9:15 p.m. ET. Brent futures, the international benchmark, traded 3.88% higher at $78.96.

The US military launched another wave of strikes Sunday against Iran after hitting 140 targets on Saturday, according to U.S. Central Command. The strikes are in response to an attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a container ship transiting Hormuz.

Iran responded Sunday with strikes on U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, according to the state news agency Tasnim.

Iranian state media said the Revolutionary Guard had closed the Hormuz until further notice, but the U.S. military disputed that claim. Centcom said the strait was open to “all vessels seeking to lawfully transit.”

“U.S. forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations,” Centcom said in a social media post Sunday. “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.”

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PSX has a steep sell-off this week.

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— The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) launched the first trading session of the week with a dramatic sell-off, as intense selling pressure pulled the benchmark KSE-100 Index down by more than 2,100 points in early trade.

At the opening of the session, the benchmark index plummeted to the psychological barrier of about 180,100 points after losing more than 2,100 points.

The fall came after a positive conclusion in the previous trading session, when the KSE-100 Index gained 982 points to conclude at 182,241 points at the end of the day.

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