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Dollar hovers at two-week low as rate-hike forecasts fade, emphasis on beleaguered yen

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The U.S. dollar held near a two-week low on Monday as investors trimmed bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, while the yen stayed locked near a 40-year low, putting investors on edge over what Tokyo would do next.

The euro bought $1.1435, close to its best level in two weeks, and the pound bought $1.3351 in latest trading. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was at 100.9 early in the trading day.

The yen stood at 161.57 to the dollar, not far from a 1986 low of 162.84 set last week, with traders still concerned of probable intervention after a surprising burst of purchasing momentarily raised the currency on Thursday.

The South Korean won edged higher on the first day of its historic 24-hour onshore spot dollar-won trading. It sold for 1,534 to the dollar.

DOLLAR ON THE DEFENSIVE

The U.S. dollar suffered its largest weekly loss last week since April after the U.S. payrolls report indicated that job growth slowed abruptly in June, lowering market expectations of a rate hike from the Fed.

Still, the fall in the unemployment rate indicates a healthy labour market and should assist preserve Fed tightening expectations, OCBC strategists said.“The broader USD outlook remains constructive,” they wrote, confirming their call for a modest ​2-3% rise in the dollar in the second half of 2026.

Falling oil prices have helped soothe some inflationary concerns, and investors this week will focus on the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting to help evaluate policymakers’ thinking regarding the rates forecast.

Strategists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia said the minutes might be shorter or less insightful than normal because Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh believes the central bank has offered too much direction in the past.

YEN VIGIL ON

The yen remained in the spotlight, hovering near a 40-year low as the threat of official intervention kept traders on edge, but analysts doubted any move by Tokyo would provide durable assistance.

OCBC strategists said the danger of intervention is more likely to create bouts of volatility and transitory ​corrections rather than a durable reversal in USD/JPY.”Without a meaningful change ​in underlying macro ​fundamentals, verbal warnings and outright intervention alone are unlikely to change the broader direction of the pair,” they concluded. The Japanese policymakers have also broken their tradition of telegraphing risks, suggesting a more targeted drive to squeeze speculators and boost the cost of betting against the yen, which investors are also worried about.Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said, “The market understands about the risk of intervention. “We’re still seeing indications in the options market that some sizable pools of capital have bought short-dated dollar puts to hedge long dollar positions in the event of intervention,” he said.

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Sindh CS reviews high level warning on monsoon rains, wheat hoarding

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 China announced on Friday it was adding 14 European entities to an export control list in retaliation for the European Union penalizing 14 Chinese enterprises as part of its latest round of sanctions against Russia.

Chinese companies will not be allowed to export dual-use items, which can be used for both civilian and military purposes, to the 14 European organizations, China’s Commerce Ministry said in a statement.

Additionally, foreign companies are barred from providing to the 14 entities dual-use items made in China.

The European companies affected include Czech vehicle manufacturer Tatra Trucks, Italian electric motor maker Lafert SpA, German manufacturer Sindlhauser Materials GmbH and French drone manufacturer Cavok UAS.

A Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said the measures were taken in retaliation for the E.U. on Thursday adding 14 mainland Chinese and Hong Kong enterprises to its latest list of sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine.

The measures are intended “to safeguard national security and interests, and to fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation, in response to the E.U.’s egregious actions,” the spokesperson said.

The E.U. on Thursday adopted its 21st package of sanctions against Russia targeting banks, cryptocurrency companies and military equipment manufacturers among other categories. The sanctions included entities from other countries such as China, India and Turkey, believed to provide Russia with dual-use goods and technology.

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Govt maintains petrol and diesel prices till July 27

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Petroleum Division said that the pricing of petrol and high-speed diesel will not be adjusted till July 27.

Prices of petrol and diesel will not change over the weekend and the existing rates will continue, the Petroleum Division said in an official notification.

“The notification stated that the existing prices of petrol, high-speed diesel and other petroleum products will remain intact till July 27 (Monday) and the consumers will be able to purchase fuel at the existing rates during this period.

The government has also not announced any hike or cut in the price of petroleum products, officials said.

The present pricing will remain in force until the next price review, when a new decision will be taken.

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Petrol Rs20.81, diesel Rs55.36 a litre in a week on daily pricing

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Petrol and diesel prices have seen a dramatic increase of Rs20.81 per litre and Rs55.36 per litre respectively within a week under Pakistan’s newly established daily petroleum pricing scheme.

The petroleum division said that under the new pricing mechanism, petrol price was jacked up by Rs5.44 per litre and diesel Rs31.05 per litre from July 18.

On July 21, petrol prices were slashed by 35 paisas per litre, while diesel prices were raised by Rs5.71 per litre.

The petrol prices were increased by Rs4.93 per litre and Rs7.15 per litre for diesel on July 22. On July 23, a day later, the petrol price was increased by Rs6.39 per litre and diesel by Rs7.83 per litre.

On July 24, petrol prices were increased by Rs4.40 per litre and diesel by Rs3.62 per litre.

On July 17, the federal cabinet had decided to start daily pricing of petroleum products and had authorised the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to fix the rates of fuel on a daily basis in line with the international market trends.

After the last modification, petrol prices are now Rs335.18 a litre while diesel is being offered at Rs383.46 a litre.

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