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Dollar steady around 2-week high as Middle East war boosts oil

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The dollar held near ​a two-week high on Wednesday as renewed hostilities in the Middle East drove oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns and adding upward pressure on bond ‌yields.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.11% to 99.79, its highest point since August 17. The euro was down 0.13% at $1.1577.

The currency’s appeal as a safe haven has been reinforced by rising Treasury yields and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, even as recent economic data came in below forecasts.

The U.S. launched a barrage of airstrikes ​on Iran on Tuesday, prompting Iranian retaliation, in the most serious escalation in weeks. Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending the previous session’s surge, with Brent futures ​up 1.15% at $95.74 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude 0.85% firmer at $91.05.

“Continued vigilance is needed over the situation in the Middle ⁠East today,” said Kumiko Ishikawa, a senior FX analyst at Sony Financial Group.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar weakened 0.8% against the greenback to $0.5844, its lowest point since August 13, even ​after the country’s central bank raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. Analysts said market participants viewed the decision as less hawkish than expected.

“Relative to where ​markets were and what they might have expected, it doesn’t meet their expectations,” said Westpac New Zealand strategist Imre Speizer.

July JOLTS job openings and the August ISM manufacturing index, released overnight, were below market expectations, but money markets have reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike following Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last week.

Markets are now pricing in a 68% chance of a September Fed hike, up ​from around 40% a week earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“As for the U.S. data, it is worth bearing in mind that, if the figures are weak, their impact ​could be offset by heightened tensions in the Middle East,” Ishikawa said.

August’s jobs and consumer price inflation data are both due before the Fed’s next meeting on September 15 and 16. This Friday’s ‌employment report is ⁠expected to show that employers added 56,000 jobs last month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

Fed Governor Michael Barr said on Tuesday that if inflation does not cool quickly, it will be time for the central bank to raise interest rates.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note rose to 4.81%, its highest since November 2023, while Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield extended its rally to 3.01% on Wednesday morning after reaching a three-decade milestone of 3% on Tuesday.

Higher yields drive investors to buy safe-haven currencies, including the U.S. dollar, while ​undermining the case for riskier assets like ​equities.

The British pound lost 0.09% to $1.3503, while ⁠the Australian dollar eased 0.04% to $0.7141.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.24% to $77,242.62. Ether declined 0.51% to $2,407.74.

YEN UNDER PRESSURE

The Japanese yen weakened 0.08% against the greenback to 160.28 per dollar, its lowest level since July 31, remaining beyond the psychologically important 160-per-dollar threshold despite overwhelming expectations of a ​Bank of Japan rate hike this month.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced strong support for “decisive” monetary steps to combat yen weakness ​in a meeting with BOJ ⁠Governor Kazuo Ueda, the Treasury Department said.

Ueda told reporters he hoped to discuss with his board at this month’s meeting whether the economy is moving in line with its forecast, and whether inflation risks were heightening.

The BOJ’s hawkish board member, Hajime Takata, said on Wednesday the bank should conduct interest rate hikes nimbly in response to inflationary pressures.

A rare joint intervention by the U.S. and Japan at ⁠the end of ​July provided short-lived relief for the fragile yen, pulling it away from the 40-year low of 163.99, but ​the currency has since surrendered around half of the gains from the joint action.

“There appears little chance of another round of actual co-ordinated intervention until there is some de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz that takes heat ​out of the oil price,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG, in a note.

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EU, Pakistan announce $74.6m deals to enhance business, clean energy, rule of law

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The European Union (EU) and Pakistan signed three grant agreements for €65 million ($74.6 million) on Monday that would assist Islamabad attract international investment, deliver renewable energy to off-grid populations in its northwest and improve access to justice, the information ministry said.

The awards are financed through the EU’s Multiannual Indicative Program 2021-2027 and are part of Global Gateway, the European Commission’s infrastructure investment agenda.

The plan intends to mobilize up to €300 billion ($344.6 million) in public and private investment globally in the period 2021-2027 in sectors such as technology, energy and transport.

The Pakistani government is focusing on attracting more foreign investment as it tries to achieve sustainable economic growth. In 2023 it created the Special Investment Facilitation Council, a hybrid government entity comprising both civilian and military leaders, to attract international investment to vital economic sectors.

Addressing the signing, EU Ambassador Raimundas Karoblis said: “These agreements reflect the EU’s commitment to Pakistan’s economic development and investment ambitions under our flagship Global Gateway initiative.”

The first program attempts to promote foreign investment by improving the taxation structure in Pakistan and by boosting the long-term financial planning of the government.

The second would increase renewable energy in rural villages in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province that are not connected to the national grid. It will also train to attract private investment into the energy industry of the province.

The third, building on EU assistance before, will help individuals in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan access police, prosecution services, courts and legal aid.

Both provinces share a border with Afghanistan and have bore the brunt of extremist strikes in Pakistan in recent years. Research and data platform South Asia Terrorism Portal recorded 176 attacks and 438 deaths in Balochistan in July, the highest number of violence in the month, while KP recorded 143 occurrences and 244 fatalities during the period.

The same program will help Pakistan’s most populous and industrialized provinces, Punjab and Sindh, to expand alternative and commercial conflict resolution with the declared purpose of making them more appealing to European and other corporations seeking to invest.

The EU’s development partnership with Pakistan focuses on economic development, climate resilience, governance, rule of law, human rights and sustainable management of natural resources, the statement stated. The European Union (EU) and Pakistan on Monday inked three grant agreements for €65 million ($74.6 million) to assist Islamabad attract international investment, deliver renewable energy to off-grid populations in its northwest and improve access to justice, the information ministry said.

The awards are supported under the EU’s Multiannual Indicative Program 2021-2027 and are part of the European Commission’s infrastructure investment initiative, Global Gateway.

The plan intends to mobilize up to €300 billion ($344.6 million) in public and private investment globally in the period 2021-2027 in sectors such as technology, energy and transport.

The Pakistani government is focusing on attracting more foreign investment as it tries to achieve sustainable economic growth. In 2023 it created the Special Investment Facilitation Council, a hybrid government entity comprising both civilian and military leaders, to attract international investment to vital economic sectors.

Addressing the signing, EU Ambassador Raimundas Karoblis said: “These agreements reflect the EU’s commitment to Pakistan’s economic development and investment ambitions under our flagship Global Gateway initiative.”

The first program attempts to promote foreign investment by improving the taxation structure in Pakistan and by boosting the long-term financial planning of the government.

The second would increase renewable energy in rural villages in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province that are not connected to the national grid. It will also train to attract private investment into the energy industry of the province.

The third, building on EU assistance before, will help individuals in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan access police, prosecution services, courts and legal aid.

Both provinces share a border with Afghanistan and have bore the brunt of extremist strikes in Pakistan in recent years. Research and data platform South Asia Terrorism Portal recorded 176 attacks and 438 deaths in Balochistan in July, the highest number of violence in the month, while KP recorded 143 occurrences and 244 fatalities during the period.

The same program will also help the most populated and industrialized regions of Pakistan, Punjab and Sindh, to increase alternative and commercial conflict resolution, with the declared purpose of making them more attractive for European and other corporations seeking to invest.

The EU’s development cooperation with Pakistan covers economic development, climate resilience, governance, rule of law, human rights and sustainable management of natural resources, the statement said.

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Oil rises slightly ahead of potential US-Iran talks

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Oil prices rose on Tuesday for the first time in five sessions as investors awaited news on possible US-Iran negotiations at the United Nations General Assembly this week after additional supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Brent crude futures for November gained $1.14, or 1.1 percent, to $101.48 a barrel by 0317 GMT. The WTI October contract, which expires on Tuesday, rose 87 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $96.65 a barrel.

The more actively traded November contract rose 85 cents, or 0.9%, to $93.22 a barrel.

Tehran and Washington traded threats Sunday although US President Donald Trump indicated he would be open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who is likely to be in New York this week for the UN summit.”The rise in WTI and the stronger opening in Brent look like a garden-variety short-covering bounce after the recent slide, rather than a change in fundamentals,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.“Traders are taking some risk off the table, positioned for further downside as the diplomatic narrative plays out.”

Iran has also conveyed to mediators over the weekend its terms for returning to negotiations, Al Jazeera said, quoting ​Iran’s security commander, Mohsen Rezaei.

“Oil prices are going to be range-bound and sensitive to headlines until there’s either clear progress or a setback in the diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran,” Waterer said.

Tensions remained high in the Middle East as Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced they attacked Riyadh and a Saudi Aramco complex in Yanbu and stepped up efforts to shut off Saudi-backed forces from the Red Sea coast.

Saudi Arabia has appealed to Beijing after an increase in Houthi military activities in recent days, while China has discreetly asked Tehran to assist rein in the attacks, three Iranian sources said.

Saudi Aramco has boosted exports via the Strait of Hormuz after attacks on its East-West Pipeline halted some supplies through Yanbu. Tanker tracking data showed it loaded around 14 million barrels of its crude oil aboard seven supertankers inside the Gulf on Sunday.

“The new feature indicates the country’s eagerness to compete in the booming AI industry,” attendees remark.Supply worries are abating as exports via the Strait of Hormuz hit a six-month high and Saudi Arabia moves to repair its East-West pipeline…“Crude implied volatility dropped 3.3% to 50.39 but remains elevated historically,” Saxo Bank analysts stated in a client note.

Separately, an armed group shut valve seven on Libya’s Sharara crude pipeline to Zawiya port on Monday, causing a major drop in production at the Sharara oilfield, Libya’s National Oil Corporation said in a statement.

Production from the field has plummeted by roughly 200,000 barrels per day and is now 100,000 bpd to 105,000 bpd, two engineers at the field told Reuters.

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Foreign investment inflows in Pakistan up 80pc in August

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Pakistan’s net foreign direct investment (FDI) jumped 80 percent year-on-year to $316 million in August, the country’s financial advisor said on Sunday, calling it a “positive signal” as Islamabad transitions from macroeconomic stability to investment-led, sustainable development.

The $316 million foreign investment inflows was the greatest monthly level reached by the country in the last two years, while it marked a 77 percent increase on a month-on-month basis, Khurram Schehzad, an assistant to Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, said in a post on X.

The increase was backed by better investment inflows from China, Canada and the UAE, along with a reduced repatriation and outflows, leading to a much stronger net FDI position during the month,” he said.

Pakistan’s net FDI plummeted 34 percent to $1.64 billion or 0.39 percent of gross domestic product in the Fiscal Year 2025-26 that ended in June, according to World Bank data.

This was far below the previous average of about 2 percent of GDP for Emerging Market and Developing Economies and much below the roughly 5 percent peak reported in 2008.

For policymakers, investment promotion should not cease after an investor joins the nation, said the former minister.

“It’s about shifting investment, thinking from measuring capital flows only to understanding how capital creates enduring economic capability.”

Consumer prices in Pakistan surged to 11.1 percent in August from 9.2 percent in July, exceeding the central bank’s medium-term inflation target of 5-7 percent further.

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