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Now the Indus Waters Treaty matters beyond South Asia.
Geopolitical analysts warned a generation ago that “the world’s future wars will be fought over water, not oil.”Former World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin warned in the mid-1990s that “the wars of the new millennium will be fought over water.”
Thirty years later, that admonition seems ever more relevant.
In April 2025, India said it was putting the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance — after the Pahalgam incident — sparking fresh fears about the viability of one of the world’s longest-standing transboundary water-sharing agreements.
The deal, mediated by the World Bank and signed in September 1960, has withstood three wars and decades of political antagonism between the two nuclear-armed neighbours, making it one of the most enduring international agreements controlling shared water resources.
Indus Water Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty governs the use of rivers flowing through the Indus basin between India and Pakistan.
The three western rivers, the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, are given mainly to Pakistan, and the three eastern rivers, the Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, to India, with stated rights and obligations for each country over the shared river system.
The treaty means far more to Pakistan than a diplomatic agreement.
The Indus river system is the country’s main source of irrigation, supplying water for agriculture, food security, the textile industry and a large share of energy generation.
Any extended disruption of these water supplies would have enormous economic, environmental and humanitarian effects.
Issue of national security
The problem has always been framed in terms of national security for Pakistan.
After a meeting of the National Security Committee on April 24, 2025, the Foreign Office said the Indus Waters Treaty was “a binding international agreement brokered by the World Bank and contains no provision for unilateral suspension” .
The statement further added:
““Water is a vital national interest of Pakistan and the lifeline of its 240 million people and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs.”
It also cautioned:
“Any effort to interrupt or divert the flow of water of Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty and the invasion of the rights of lower riparian will be viewed as an Act of War and countered with full force across the entire spectrum of National Power.”
The remarks illustrate how disagreements over shared water might spark larger military escalation between the two nuclear-armed states, with implications far beyond South Asia.
The danger of nuclear
Scientific studies demonstrate that the effects of a big nuclear war between India and Pakistan will be felt beyond the region.
In a study published in ‘Science Advances’, researchers imagined a scenario where India fires 100 strategic nuclear weapons on urban centres and Pakistan answers with 150.
The report anticipates immediate fatalities of between 50 million and 125 million.
Nuclear explosions would have caused firestorms that would have sent 16 to 36 teragrams of black carbon into the sky . This would have reduced global sunlight by 20-35% , lowered average world temperatures by 2-5°C , reduced precipitation by 15-30% , and disrupted agricultural production for over a decade .
Such climate impacts could lead to widespread crop failures, catastrophic famine and millions of fatalities globally, the researchers find.
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According to an audit study, SIM cards were illegally sold in Balochistan under the identities of Punjabi people.
– An audit report has revealed irregularities in the sale and registration of mobile SIM cards in Balochistan, with several SIMs allegedly activated using the identities of citizens from Punjab.
According to the report, seven franchises operating in Balochistan activated around 2,000 SIM cards registered under the names of Punjab residents through illegal means. The findings have raised concerns over the effectiveness of measures taken against those involved in such activities.
The audit noted that despite evidence of fraud, the concerned franchises were only issued show-cause notices. No criminal cases were registered against them, and no financial penalties were imposed.
The report further stated that two telecommunications companies were fined more than Rs1.88 billion and also received show-cause notices; however, the implementation of these decisions remained incomplete.
Audit officials described the lack of strong action against organised fake SIM-related fraud as a serious concern, warning that such practices could raise issues related to national security and the regulatory framework.
The authorities have been advised to ensure immediate recovery of outstanding dues and take effective legal action against those responsible to prevent similar incidents in the future.
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The PM and President denounce the terrorist attack on Balochistani laborers.
Both Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari have vehemently denounced the terrorist attack on defenseless laborers in Balochistan’s Washuk area.
In their individual messages, they conveyed their sincere condolences and sympathies to the families of the martyrs as well as their profound grief and sorrow at the loss of priceless lives.
Such despicable actions, according to the President and Prime Minister, cannot weaken the country’s determination.
They stated that the security forces are committed to protecting every citizen’s life and property and totally eliminating terrorism from the nation.
The President and Prime Minister declared that Fitna-ul-Hindustan terrorists and those who support them are unworthy of any leniency and will face justice.
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For the first time, China successfully lands a “SpaceX-style” reusable rocket.
– China has successfully landed a reusable rocket for the first time, marking a “historic breakthrough” for the country’s space technology.
The Long March 10B rocket was launched from the Hainan commercial spacecraft launch site in south China’s Hainan Province.
After separation of its two stages, the first stage returned and was successfully caught upright on sea-borne net-capture platform.
The rocket also flew a satellite into “its predetermined orbit” on Friday, state news agency Xinhua reported.
“Approximately six minutes after the first and second stages separated, the first stage returned vertically and was successfully recovered at a sea-based recovery platform using a net system,” China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) said in a statement.
“It signifies a historic breakthrough for my country in the field of reusable rocket technology and will lay a solid foundation for accelerating the improvement of my country’s space access capabilities,” CASC said.
China’s Long March 10B rocket has been compared to the SpaceX Falcon 9.
Developed by the country’s main state rocket developer, the China Academy of Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT), it is capable of carrying a payload of at least 16 metric tons to low-Earth orbit.
But unlike the Elon Musk-owned company’s pioneering rocket, the Long March 10B does not autonomously use deployable legs to land on a ship or a ground-based pad.
Instead, it uses “landing hooks” to latch onto the net attached to a sea-borne platform, Xinhua reported.
“Net-based recovery helps simplify the rocket’s onboard structure, reduces vehicle mass and increases payload capacity. It is also highly adaptable to landing-point deviations, as coordinated net systems can effectively expand the capture window,” CALT expert Chen Muye told Chinese state media.
So far, SpaceX has demonstrated rocket recovery in 2015, followed by the Jeff Bezos-owned Blue Origin in November last year.
SpaceX has launched its Falcon 9 nearly 150 times a year, and even reused its recovered rocket dozens of times.
Meanwhile, China has spent nearly a decade developing reusable rockets, first testing low-altitude space vehicles and later experimenting with long-range orbital-class booster recovery.
The Long March-10B rocket is a reusable liquid-fueled vehicle built for commercial launches and stands approximately 63m (206ft) tall with a diameter of 5m (16ft).
Its first stage burns kerosene and liquid oxygen (LOX), while the second stage uses LOX and liquid methane, according to CALT.
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