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Pakistan’s oil import bill goes beyond IMF projection as global prices spike

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Pakistan’s yearly import bill for petroleum products has exceeded the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) prediction for fiscal year 2025-26 following a dramatic spike in global crude oil prices due to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The official data showed that the oil import bill in FY2025-26 stood at $16.86 billion, exceeding IMF’s prediction of $15.28 billion by $1.58 billion.

The statistics showed petroleum imports grew 5.76% on-year, as worldwide oil prices surged and the government continued to depend on imported energy to meet domestic demand.

The surge came amid jitters in oil markets over the dispute involving Iran, Israel and the United States and fears over shipping via the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which almost one fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. The uncertainty sent benchmark crude prices considerably higher in the closing months of the fiscal year, raising Pakistan’s import expenditures.

The IMF has estimated Pakistan’s petroleum import bill to be $16.31 billion for the ongoing fiscal year 2026-27. But analysts say the forecast might be under pressure if geopolitical tensions continue and global oil prices stay high.

The hike in import bill has also been reflected in domestic fuel prices with petrol and high speed diesel touching all time high levels in the past few weeks. The higher energy price is projected to stoke inflation, broaden the country’s import bill and boost demand for foreign currencies.

Pakistan’s economy is extremely sensitive to changes in the international energy prices as it imports the major portion of its crude oil and petroleum products. Along with machinery and edible oil, petroleum is among the country’s biggest imports. Petroleum is core to the trade imbalance and current account balance.

Despite the increasing petroleum import cost, the external sector of Pakistan remained reasonably stable in FY2025-26, aided by record workers’ remittances and tighter import management. But economists warn that a sustained period of high oil prices could make it more difficult to keep the macroeconomy stable and satisfy fiscal and external sector targets established with the IMF.

In official records, Pakistan’s oil imports have been estimated at $16.86 billion in FY2025-26, although the IMF had earlier put the figure at $15.28 billion for the year. The Fund’s revised predictions show imports could stay over $16 billion in FY2026-27, although the actual number will be primarily determined by international oil prices and domestic energy use.

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Pakistan Stock Market crosses 180,000 mark

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Pakistan Stock Market began the third day of the business week by getting back the 180,000-point threshold, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index adding almost 1,000 points.

The stock market opened on a strong note with the KSE-100 Index gaining over 1,000 points to hit 180,863 points.

The development came a day after the benchmark index ended lower. The KSE-100 Index ended the previous trading session with a fall of 1,463 points to close at 179,846 points.

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Taxpayers to be fined Rs25,000 for submitting returns after September 30

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A Rs25,000 penalty has been proposed for traders who file their income tax returns after September 30 under the proposed easy tax scheme for traders.

According to sources, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif will introduce the easy tax scheme for traders and a new income tax return form for the current fiscal year on August 14.

Sources said a special facility has been proposed for traders who submit their income tax returns on time by September 30. Traders who file their returns within the deadline would be exempted from the registration fee for the easy tax scheme.

According to sources, a Rs25,000 registration fee and a Rs25,000 penalty have been proposed for traders who file their returns after September 30. Traders who submit their returns on time would also be provided with a registration plate worth Rs25,000.

Under the proposed scheme, separate income tax return forms are also proposed for business individuals and individual taxpayers.

Sources said the new form for income tax returns for the current fiscal year will be launched on August 14, with the aim of making the process of filing tax returns easier for traders.

It is pertinent to note that the details regarding the proposed penalties and incentives have been described as proposals from sources, while the final rules will take effect after the relevant government notification is issued.

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Pakistan reduces fuel price by Rs1.70, increases diesel price by Rs1.39

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Pakistan has announced new gasoline rates, in which petrol price has decreased by Rs 1.70 per litre while high speed diesel (HSD) price has increased by Rs 1.39 per litre.

The Petroleum Division said in a news release Tuesday that the new revised rates will come into effect from August 12, 2026. The amendments were introduced by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) under the revamped petroleum price structure of the federal government.

The price of motor spirit, widely known as petrol, has been decreased from Rs327.62 to Rs325.92 a litre, a reduction of Rs1.70.

In contrast, the high-speed diesel price has been hiked by Rs1.39 to Rs382.25 a litre from Rs380.86.

OGRA has amended the ex-depot prices of petroleum products in line with the revised pricing structure given by the federal government, the Petroleum Division said.

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