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Dollar primed for strongest month in nearly a year; jobs data, Gulf tensions in focus

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The U.S. dollar was on the defensive on Monday, but still set for its greatest monthly gain in almost a year as tension in the Gulf and ahead of jobs data that might affect the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

The U.S. and Iran hurled additional insults over the weekend before agreeing to suspend tit-for-tat attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday, leaving investors anxious about a fragile ceasefire.

Oil prices increased on Monday as strikes again disrupted petroleum shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, underpinning safe-haven demand for the dollar.

The euro was unchanged at $1.1387 after hitting a 13-month low versus the dollar last week and was set for a 2.3% monthly drop. Sterling fell 0.1% to $1.3198 and was down 2% on the month.

The risk-sensitive Aussie was at $0.6885, down 0.1% in early trade and on track for a 4.1% fall this month. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.5635, down 5.9% on the month.

The Japanese yen was last quoted at 161.75, staying at a 40-year low.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was a little higher at 101.36.
It is currently on course for a 2.5% gain in June, the highest monthly gain since July last year.

The spat with Iran has kept inflation pressures at bay, while a surprisingly hawkish debut by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh earlier this month has overturned market expectations for U.S. rate reduction this year.

Flows into the dollar are also being driven by a tech-led global market selloff as investors seek refuge.

Investors will be looking the US non-farm payroll (USNFAR=ECI) and unemployment rates (USUNR=ECI) expected this week for fresh signals on the strength of the labour market and the outlook for Fed policy.We see the USD grinding higher in the coming weeks on the story of ‘US exceptionalism,’” said Joseph Capurso, head of foreign exchange at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a note.

“Labour markets are strong and getting stronger, so it’s a recipe for higher interest rates and a stronger dollar in the U.S.,” he added.

Investors are also monitoring closely the European Central Bank’s annual forum this week as they keep tabs on developing ⁠central bank ​policies amid reduced oil prices and stock market volatility.

ECB President ​Christine Lagarde kicks off the forum Monday before a major policy panel Wednesday with Fed Chair Warsh, with markets seeking for ​a clearer read on the next Fed leader.

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After a major drop in the early going, the Pakistan Stock Exchange finishes higher.

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— The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) witnessed a last hour recovery on Monday as the benchmark KSE-100 Index managed to close in the positive zone following a steep fall in early trading.

Heavy selling pressure was witnessed at the opening of the first trading session of the week with the benchmark index falling over 2,000 points. The KSE-100 Index fell to 173,636 points in intraday trading, indicating the cautious mood of investors.

But purchasing demand came back later in the session and the market was able to wipe out most of its losses before the end.

The KSE-100 Index added 124 points to close at 175,927 points by the end of trade against the previous closing level.

The comeback was a bright spot amid a turbulent day of trading. The benchmark index had closed at 175,802 points at the finish of the previous trading session.

Market watchers said the session saw higher volatility as investors reacted to changing market circumstances before bargain hunting helped push the benchmark index into positive territory.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange has had a roller coaster ride in the last few sessions as investors continue to closely follow domestic economic developments, company earnings and global financial factors that could impact market sentiment in the coming days.

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Pakistan announces new fuel, diesel rates

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A slight decrease in the price of gasoline has been made available to motorists as a result of the announcement made by the federal government about revised prices for petroleum products. However, the rate of high-speed diesel has been dramatically increased.

The Petroleum Division has announced that the price of petrol has been decreased by Rs0.35 per litre, bringing the new retail price down to Rs315.80 per litre. This information was provided in a notification that was published last week.

On the other hand, the cost of high-speed diesel per litre has climbed by Rs5.71 since the previous price increase. The most recent revision has resulted in the new retail price of high-speed diesel being set at Rs360.06 per litre.

The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) is responsible for conducting periodic assessments of petroleum prices based on international market trends and other important pricing considerations. The revised prices are a reflection of the most recent recommendations provided by the OGRA.

The updated rates for gasoline and diesel will go into effect at twelve o’clock in the morning, according to the Petroleum Division, and they will continue to be relevant until the next planned price revision follows.

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Pakistan to boost ties with China on livestock

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 Pakistan and China have agreed to enhance cooperation in the livestock and meat export sectors, media reported on Sunday, as Islamabad seeks to deepen economic cooperation with Beijing.

Pakistan exported meat, including beef, mutton and poultry, to China, worth Rs142.3 billion ($512 million), in fiscal year 2023-24, according to Pakistan’s statistics bureau. Pakistan’s halal meat production stands at six million metric tons, of which a substantial quantity is available for export after meeting the local demand.

The understanding to enhance bilateral cooperation in livestock and meat export sectors was reached during Pakistan Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain’s meeting with a Chinese delegation, the Radio Pakistan broadcaster reported.

“Pakistan has vast livestock resources and the potential to produce high-quality halal meat,” the broadcaster said, citing Hussain.

“The participants agreed to promote the establishment of modern slaughterhouses, meat processing facilities and export infrastructure in Pakistan.”

Pakistan will also improve modern technology, cold chain systems and traceability mechanisms to enhance exports of quality halal meat to China, according to the report.

In December last year, Pakistan’s prime minister approved the halal meat export policy and directed authorities draw up a three-year action plan aimed at targeting Muslim and global markets.

The new export strategy outlines regulatory reforms, disease control measures and upgraded slaughterhouse standards that fulfill the global criteria.

In September 2025, a Karachi-based private company, The Organic Meat Company Limited (TOMCL), secured a $7.5 million order to export cooked or heat-treated frozen boneless beef to China, followed by an $8.1 million contract with Gold Crest Trading FZE for frozen boneless beef exports to the UAE for industrial and household processing.
 

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