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Dollar primed for strongest month in nearly a year; jobs data, Gulf tensions in focus

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The U.S. dollar was on the defensive on Monday, but still set for its greatest monthly gain in almost a year as tension in the Gulf and ahead of jobs data that might affect the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

The U.S. and Iran hurled additional insults over the weekend before agreeing to suspend tit-for-tat attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday, leaving investors anxious about a fragile ceasefire.

Oil prices increased on Monday as strikes again disrupted petroleum shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, underpinning safe-haven demand for the dollar.

The euro was unchanged at $1.1387 after hitting a 13-month low versus the dollar last week and was set for a 2.3% monthly drop. Sterling fell 0.1% to $1.3198 and was down 2% on the month.

The risk-sensitive Aussie was at $0.6885, down 0.1% in early trade and on track for a 4.1% fall this month. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.5635, down 5.9% on the month.

The Japanese yen was last quoted at 161.75, staying at a 40-year low.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was a little higher at 101.36.
It is currently on course for a 2.5% gain in June, the highest monthly gain since July last year.

The spat with Iran has kept inflation pressures at bay, while a surprisingly hawkish debut by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh earlier this month has overturned market expectations for U.S. rate reduction this year.

Flows into the dollar are also being driven by a tech-led global market selloff as investors seek refuge.

Investors will be looking the US non-farm payroll (USNFAR=ECI) and unemployment rates (USUNR=ECI) expected this week for fresh signals on the strength of the labour market and the outlook for Fed policy.We see the USD grinding higher in the coming weeks on the story of ‘US exceptionalism,’” said Joseph Capurso, head of foreign exchange at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a note.

“Labour markets are strong and getting stronger, so it’s a recipe for higher interest rates and a stronger dollar in the U.S.,” he added.

Investors are also monitoring closely the European Central Bank’s annual forum this week as they keep tabs on developing ⁠central bank ​policies amid reduced oil prices and stock market volatility.

ECB President ​Christine Lagarde kicks off the forum Monday before a major policy panel Wednesday with Fed Chair Warsh, with markets seeking for ​a clearer read on the next Fed leader.

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As oil rises due to concerns about the Strait of Hormuz closing, gold falls more than 1%.

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– Gold prices slid ‌more than 1% on Monday as fears of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices sharply higher, reviving expectations of elevated interest rates to combat inflationary pressures from escalating hostilities in the Middle ​East.

Spot gold dropped 1.5% to $4,060.36 per ounce by 0541 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August ​delivery were down 1.1% at $4,068.30.

U.S. and Iranian forces have exchanged heavy missile ⁠and drone assaults, with Tehran targeting U.S. facilities in states across the Gulf on Sunday and saying ​it had again closed the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices jumped about 4%, the dollar and ​U.S. Treasury yields climbed, and share markets slipped in Asia.

“Any breakout of violence in the Gulf is accompanied by pressure on gold,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

“The question is, if the ​Strait of Hormuz remains effectively or partially closed, does that lead to a deflationary effect, ​further down the road, that might actually be supportive for gold if you have demand destruction leading to lower ‌economic ⁠activity,” Frappell added.

Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual testimony before Congress as Federal Reserve chair, along with a slate of key U.S. economic data, including June CPI, PPI and retail sales, will be closely watched this week for fresh clues on the economy, inflation and the monetary policy outlook.

Remarks from Fed ​policymakers, including Vice Chair ​Michelle Bowman and Governor ⁠Christopher Waller, later in the day are also in focus as they could provide insights on how inflationary pressures are affecting the central bank’s ​stance on interest rate hikes.

Traders are currently pricing in a 72% chance ​of a ⁠U.S. Fed interest rate hike in September, up from about 63% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. FEDWATCH/ COMEX gold speculators trimmed their net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 in the ⁠week to ​July 7, data released on Friday showed, following three ​consecutive weeks of increases.

Elsewhere, spot silver declined 2.6% to $58.29 per ounce, platinum shed 1.6% to $1,601.92, and palladium fell 2% to $1,251.42

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Oil prices climb as US, Iran fight for control of Hormuz

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muz, one of the most important trade routes for global energy supplies.

US crude oil futures were up 4.1% at $74:33 per barrel as of 9:15 p.m. ET. Brent futures, the international benchmark, traded 3.88% higher at $78.96.

The US military launched another wave of strikes Sunday against Iran after hitting 140 targets on Saturday, according to U.S. Central Command. The strikes are in response to an attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a container ship transiting Hormuz.

Iran responded Sunday with strikes on U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, according to the state news agency Tasnim.

Iranian state media said the Revolutionary Guard had closed the Hormuz until further notice, but the U.S. military disputed that claim. Centcom said the strait was open to “all vessels seeking to lawfully transit.”

“U.S. forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations,” Centcom said in a social media post Sunday. “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.”

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PSX has a steep sell-off this week.

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— The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) launched the first trading session of the week with a dramatic sell-off, as intense selling pressure pulled the benchmark KSE-100 Index down by more than 2,100 points in early trade.

At the opening of the session, the benchmark index plummeted to the psychological barrier of about 180,100 points after losing more than 2,100 points.

The fall came after a positive conclusion in the previous trading session, when the KSE-100 Index gained 982 points to conclude at 182,241 points at the end of the day.

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