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Dollar primed for strongest month in nearly a year; jobs data, Gulf tensions in focus

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The U.S. dollar was on the defensive on Monday, but still set for its greatest monthly gain in almost a year as tension in the Gulf and ahead of jobs data that might affect the Federal Reserve’s rate path.

The U.S. and Iran hurled additional insults over the weekend before agreeing to suspend tit-for-tat attacks and meet in Qatar on Tuesday, leaving investors anxious about a fragile ceasefire.

Oil prices increased on Monday as strikes again disrupted petroleum shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, underpinning safe-haven demand for the dollar.

The euro was unchanged at $1.1387 after hitting a 13-month low versus the dollar last week and was set for a 2.3% monthly drop. Sterling fell 0.1% to $1.3198 and was down 2% on the month.

The risk-sensitive Aussie was at $0.6885, down 0.1% in early trade and on track for a 4.1% fall this month. The New Zealand dollar was steady at $0.5635, down 5.9% on the month.

The Japanese yen was last quoted at 161.75, staying at a 40-year low.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was a little higher at 101.36.
It is currently on course for a 2.5% gain in June, the highest monthly gain since July last year.

The spat with Iran has kept inflation pressures at bay, while a surprisingly hawkish debut by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh earlier this month has overturned market expectations for U.S. rate reduction this year.

Flows into the dollar are also being driven by a tech-led global market selloff as investors seek refuge.

Investors will be looking the US non-farm payroll (USNFAR=ECI) and unemployment rates (USUNR=ECI) expected this week for fresh signals on the strength of the labour market and the outlook for Fed policy.We see the USD grinding higher in the coming weeks on the story of ‘US exceptionalism,’” said Joseph Capurso, head of foreign exchange at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, in a note.

“Labour markets are strong and getting stronger, so it’s a recipe for higher interest rates and a stronger dollar in the U.S.,” he added.

Investors are also monitoring closely the European Central Bank’s annual forum this week as they keep tabs on developing ⁠central bank ​policies amid reduced oil prices and stock market volatility.

ECB President ​Christine Lagarde kicks off the forum Monday before a major policy panel Wednesday with Fed Chair Warsh, with markets seeking for ​a clearer read on the next Fed leader.

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Oil steady near one-week highs as US-Iran peace deal prospects fade

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 Oil prices steadied on Tuesday at more than ‌one-week highs amid fading hopes of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after President Donald Trump demanded compensation for damage the U.S. has ​incurred.

Brent crude futures were flat at $87.81 a barrel by 0013 GMT, while U.S. West ​Texas Intermediate crude futures held at $82.20 a barrel.

Both benchmarks rose more than ⁠5% on Monday to their highest since July 31, after Trump responded to Iran’s conditions ​for a peace deal with his own demands that Iran pay compensation for people killed ​in wars, attacks and protests, which is likely to complicate efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Later in the day he added that the U.S. had control of the strait and had swept the strategic ​oil waterway for Iranian mines.

“There appears to be a gulf, no pun intended, between ​the U.S. and Iran over what any agreement would actually look like,” said Tim Waterer, chief market ‌analyst at ⁠KCM Trade.
“As a result, some of the optimism that built up last week is being unwound, giving oil prices a decidedly bid tone.”

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco (2222.SE), opens new tab has postponed the restart of its 400,000-barrel-per-day Jazan refinery to August 30 after the Houthis claimed two attacks on the plant on ​Sunday.

“The chokehold risk around ​both the Strait ⁠of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb remains highly significant. Even intermittent restrictions or the threat of further incidents keep insurance costs elevated and ​force longer shipping routes … hence energy flows look likely to stay ​constrained near ⁠term,” Waterer said.

In a note on Monday, analysts at Barclays said that in the week ending August 7, crude oil and refined product net exports through the Strait of Hormuz averaged ⁠3 million ​barrels per day, down from 4.4 million bpd the ​previous week.

Elsewhere, Iraq raised the September official selling price (OSP) for Basra Medium crude to Asia by $2.50 to minus $4 a barrel ​against the average of Oman/Dubai quotes. 

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KSE-100 falls more than 1,000 points as PSX continues to lose

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 Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened in negative territory on the second trading day of the week, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index falling by more than 1,000 points in early trading.

The KSE-100 Index dropped to 180,076 points shortly after the start of trading, reflecting a sharp decline in market sentiment.

The stock market had also closed lower in the previous trading session. The KSE-100 Index ended the day at 181,310 points, down 119 points.

Meanwhile, Oil prices rose on Tuesday as negotiations between the United States and Iran over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse, while Asian shares drifted on protracted uncertainty over the global inflation outlook.

U.S. President Donald Trump responded with his own demands on Monday to Iran’s conditions for a peace deal, calling for Iran to pay compensation for those killed in wars, attacks and protests, in a rhetorical escalation likely to complicate efforts to reopen the crucial waterway.

MSCI’s broadest ⁠index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MISX00000PUS), opens new tab swung between losses and gains and was up 0.36%, while South Korea’s KOSPI (.KS11), opens new tab rose 1.3%, as the latest escalation in Gulf hostilities kept market sentiment fragile.

Nasdaq futures edged 0.34% higher while S&P 500 futures added 0.13% after Wall Street ended lower in Monday’s cash session.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures were flat, while FTSE futures fell 0.05% and DAX futures edged 0.07% higher. Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) opened in negative territory on the second trading day of the week, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index falling by more than 1,000 points in early trading.

The KSE-100 Index dropped to 180,076 points shortly after the start of trading, reflecting a sharp decline in market sentiment.

The stock market had also closed lower in the previous trading session. The KSE-100 Index ended the day at 181,310 points, down 119 points.

Meanwhile, Oil prices rose on Tuesday as negotiations between the United States and Iran over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse, while Asian shares drifted on protracted uncertainty over the global inflation outlook.

U.S. President Donald Trump responded with his own demands on Monday to Iran’s conditions for a peace deal, calling for Iran to pay compensation for those killed in wars, attacks and protests, in a rhetorical escalation likely to complicate efforts to reopen the crucial waterway.

MSCI’s broadest ⁠index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MISX00000PUS), opens new tab swung between losses and gains and was up 0.36%, while South Korea’s KOSPI (.KS11), opens new tab rose 1.3%, as the latest escalation in Gulf hostilities kept market sentiment fragile.

Nasdaq futures edged 0.34% higher while S&P 500 futures added 0.13% after Wall Street ended lower in Monday’s cash session.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures were flat, while FTSE futures fell 0.05% and DAX futures edged 0.07% higher.

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Officials, goods carriers gather today to discuss difficulties

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The government has said issues facing goods transporters will be resolved soon and invited their representatives for talks in Islamabad on Monday (today), as a nationwide strike over daily diesel price revisions and higher toll charges entered its second day.

The All Pakistan Goods Transporters Alliance began the strike on Saturday after talks with the government failed to produce a breakthrough, threatening disruptions to domestic supply chains and exports in a country that relies heavily on road freight to move goods between ports, factories and markets.

Communications Minister Abdul Aleem Khan assured representatives of the alliance during a video-link meeting on Saturday that all their “legitimate demands” would be addressed on a priority basis, his ministry said in a statement.

“Issues of goods transporters will be resolved soon,” he was quoted as saying.

The minister invited a delegation of transporters to Islamabad on Monday for detailed discussions on their concerns.

The transporters have demanded that the government withdraw its decision to revise diesel prices daily and instead determine them on a monthly basis.

Pakistan previously revised petroleum prices every fortnight but moved to daily revisions amid volatility in global energy markets following the outbreak of the US-Iran war in February.

The alliance is also seeking restoration of toll rates that were in effect on June 1, 2024, a halt to further increases and a one-year ban on establishing new toll plazas.

It has demanded that a seven percent withholding tax imposed on goods transporters be reduced to two percent and called for uniform enforcement of axle-load regulations across the country, with overloading controlled at the point of origin.

Khan said the government would begin implementing its axle-load policy immediately and made clear that “not a single overloaded vehicle” would be allowed to enter motorways.

The minister said transporters had expressed support for the government’s axle-load policy and urged them to cooperate in protecting motorways and national highways from damage caused by excessive loads.

“If we do not sit together and discuss our issues, how can we move forward,” he said during the meeting, according to the ministry.

He also ordered the inspector general of the motorway police to act against corruption in the force, saying officials found taking bribes would be dismissed and face criminal cases. 

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