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Mideast tensions ease, crude oil prices decline, stocks sag on Wall Street

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Stocks on Wall Street wobbled to a mixed finish Monday as oil prices dipped after the U.S. and Iran suspended their strikes as work resumed to restart discussions to end the war.

The S&P 500 was up less than 0.1% after spending most of the day bouncing between minor gains and losses. The benchmark index was coming off two straight weekly losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq composite lost 0.2 percent for its fourth straight loss.

The three main stock indexes are on track to post monthly declines. That would be a second straight monthly decline for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Oil prices turned lower after a week of gains driven by a significant rise in conflict between the U.S. and Iran that raised fears about global oil supplies. Brent crude, the worldwide benchmark, lost 6.3% to end at $85.87 a barrel for October delivery. Last week prices shot up over $100 a barrel before dropping again.

U.S. crude oil for September delivery dropped 7.5% to settle at $82.61 a barrel.

The confrontation between the U.S. and Iran has severely limited, and at times stopped, transportation through the critical Strait of Hormuz. That has sent ripples through the global economy. Gasoline prices have soared and transportation costs are going up for most commodities, and firms usually pass those expenses along to households.

Trading was shaky, with a mix of large firms leading to gains and losses, with technology companies responsible for much of the market swings.

Nvidia sank 5% while Micron Technology lost 2.3%. Microsoft shares jumped 1.9%, while Apple added 1.2%. They are all among the most valuable corporations in the world, and those lofty values give them considerable sway over the broader market’s path.

Most businesses in the S&P 500 rose, but the mix of gains and losses among a range of those companies had more influence in pushing and pulling the market. Communications stocks were among Monday’s winners. Shares of Alphabet, the parent company of Google, increased 2.1%. Charter Communications shares jumped 6.7% while Comcast shares climbed 2.3%.

Credit card issuers and payment processors also profited. American Express was up 2.8%, Capital One Financial added 2.1%, Visa jumped 1.9% and rival Mastercard was up 2.2%. Shares of Chinese memory chip company CXMT jumped on their Shanghai debut. The corporation catapulted to become the most expensive listed company in China, with a projected market value of 3.3 trillion yuan (almost $490 billion).

The S&P 500 was up 1.20 points at 7,413.18. The Dow added 262.83 points, to 52,210.08, while the Nasdaq fell 43.74 points, to 24,932.08.

It’s a busy week ahead on Wall Street with a number of potentially mark-moving developments on the economy and company profits. Consumer confidence reports are coming Tuesday and inflation Thursday.

“This is a week with more than its share of potential surprises, good and bad,” said Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, with E-Trade from Morgan Stanley.

The primary focus will be the Federal Reserve with an announcement on its interest rate policy Wednesday. The central bank has had to deal with the effects of growing inflation, as the U.S. war with Iran continues. It also faces a fresh round of U.S.-imposed tariffs worldwide that might add to its inflation troubles.

Wall Street gives a roughly one-in-three probability the Fed will raise rates at its meeting this week. Raising rates makes borrowing more expensive, which can help cool inflation and hinder economic growth.

The central bank has held rates stable throughout 2023 as it analyzes the course of inflation and its impact on the economy, but Wall Street is wagering on at least one rate hike before the year ends. Inflation is still too high, which is hurting people, and fuel prices have been a particular strain on budgets and expenditure. Higher gasoline prices are pinching household budgets and that may mean cutting back on other things such as clothes and travel.

Investors are looking to the next round of corporate earnings for signs of consumer strain and if the yearlong rally in stock prices across Wall Street is supported by profits and profit-growth predictions.

Investors will also be digesting a strong wave of corporate earnings this week. Many of those studies could shed further light on the health of different parts of the economy. Paint and coatings producer Sherwin-Williams, airplane builder Boeing and payments processor Visa are scheduled to disclose their latest results on Tuesday.

Starbucks and Chipotle are reporting earnings Wednesday. Technology companies have come under particular scrutiny since their huge profits during the year have fueled Wall Street’s record run. Microsoft is due to report earnings on Wednesday. Apple and Amazon (which has a booming cloud services sector and is AI-focused) release earnings Thursday.

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Food costs go up across Pakistan, making vegetables, meat and bread expensive

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Consumers across Pakistan are facing higher food prices as the cost of vegetables, fruits, meat and flour has increased in several major cities, adding to pressure on household budgets.

In Lahore, vegetable prices remained above officially notified rates, with consumers complaining that market prices were higher despite government price lists. Onions, for instance, were officially priced at Rs195 per kilogram but were being sold for around Rs200 per kg in the market.

Tomatoes had an official rate of Rs150 per kg, while capsicum was being sold at Rs280, bitter gourd at Rs220 and cauliflower at Rs180 per kg, according to the reported market prices.

The situation was also reported in Faisalabad, where meat prices were significantly higher than the notified rates. Beef was being sold for around Rs1,500 per kg, compared with an official rate of Rs1,150.

Mutton prices saw an even larger difference, reaching approximately Rs3,000 per kg in the market against the notified price of Rs2,100 per kg.

The increase in meat prices has added to the financial burden on consumers, particularly households that have already been dealing with higher prices of essential food items.

In Peshawar, the price of flour also increased. The price of a 20-kilogram bag of fine flour reportedly rose by Rs100 to Rs3,150.

Consumers in Quetta also faced higher vegetable prices. Tomatoes reportedly became Rs40 per kg more expensive, while onion prices increased by Rs20 per kg. Okra prices rose by Rs30 per kg, while peas became Rs50 per kg more expensive.

The latest increases have renewed concerns among consumers about the gap between officially notified prices and actual retail market rates.

Official price lists are generally issued by district administrations and relevant authorities to regulate the prices of essential commodities. However, enforcement remains a challenge when retailers sell goods above notified rates.

For consumers, food inflation has a direct impact on household expenditure because vegetables, flour and meat form a significant part of daily food consumption. Higher prices can force families to reduce purchases, switch to cheaper alternatives or allocate a larger share of their income to food.

The price differences reported in different cities also reflect the varying supply and demand conditions in local markets. Transportation costs, availability of produce, seasonal changes and wholesale market prices can influence retail rates.

Authorities routinely conduct inspections and impose fines against retailers accused of overcharging, but consumers frequently complain that official rates are not consistently reflected in markets.

The latest rise in food prices comes as households continue to closely monitor the cost of essential commodities. Any sustained increase in food prices could further increase pressure on family budgets and household purchasing power.

Market conditions and government enforcement measures will determine whether the current price increases ease in the coming days.  

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PSX starts lower as benchmark index falls over 400 points

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The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) began lower on Monday as selling pressure continued amidst heightened regional tensions.

The KSE-100 index closed at 170,357.55 after declining by 407.67 points, or 0.24 percent, from 170,765.22 at the last closing.

During early trade, the benchmark index achieved an intra-day high of 171,126.52 and low of 170,223.62.

Market statistics showed trading volume at 36,325,052 shares.

Asian share markets mainly fell on Monday as oil prices surged again with worries about whether the US and Iran can achieve a truce any time soon, leaving bonds under pressure ahead of a week full of economic headlines.

US President Donald Trump this weekend dismissed an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran was desperate to reach a deal. Negotiations would continue this week but Iran shows no sign of softening its intentions, Trump said.

Brent prices jumped 2.7% to $107.16 a barrel with gains this month approaching 18%, while US crude futures were up 1.9% at $94.16 a barrel.

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Pakistan, IMF will start talks to secure $1.2 billion finance

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The government and the staff mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will today (Monday) kick-off formal talks for the fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the third review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).

The IMF mission, led by Iva Petrova, is set to stay in Pakistan for roughly two weeks, until the first week of October, to carry out the two reviews.

Pakistan is on a 37-month IMF program aimed at stabilising the economy through fiscal discipline, structural reforms and steps to foster long-term growth.

With the reviews completed successfully, Pakistan will become eligible to receive around $1 billion under the EFF and another $200 million under the RSF, bringing the total planned financing to $1.2 billion by the end of November or early December.

The discussions will review Pakistan’s economic performance and program targets for the period up to June 30 based on data available up to June 30. The Pakistani authorities will also brief the IMF on the Sovereign Wealth Fund, the measures to eliminate circular debt, and the rationale behind not deregulating the sugar business.

The IMF will also be briefed on the current account deficit, primary surplus, foreign currency reserves and exchange rate. Expansion of tax base and reforms will be the focus of talks with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).

IMF to provide Pakistan $3.6 billion more in next 14 months

The Ministry of Energy will update the IMF on circular debt and reforms, while the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) will give updates on actions to fight money laundering and terrorist funding.

The IMF will also have discussions with the governments of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to strengthen tax and non-tax revenue collection, particularly measures to boost agricultural tax collection.

He claimed the government had neither issued any sovereign guarantee for a taxpayer-funded loan to buy aircraft for PIA nor was it buying aircraft for the privatised airline.

The clarification follows reports on social media that a minister was involved in negotiations for sovereign-backed finance for PIA jets.

The claims came after a meeting between Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and US Export-Import Bank Chairman John Jovanovich on the sidelines of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

The conference was held to discuss the Reko Diq mining project and finance options for the purchase of planes for PIA, the Finance Ministry stated. Aurangzeb also talked about PIA’s interest in Boeing 787 Dreamliners and asked support for a finance package for aircraft and engines.

“Typically US Exim financing is used to finance US exports and may be used for asset-backed aircraft financing, meaning that a sovereign guarantee is not automatically required,” Schehzad said.

Talks with US Exim were not confined to PIA and included prospective finance in aviation, refinery projects and Reko Diq as part of larger Pakistan-US economic cooperation, he said.

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