Business
S&P Global expects State Bank to remain cautious on monetary policy despite economic benefits
Pakistan’s improving economic indicators are unlikely to trigger an immediate shift in monetary policy as inflation and external risks continue to weigh on the outlook and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to maintain a cautious approach, according to a new report by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s recent assessment indicates that the central bank’s decision to hold the policy rate at 11.5% was a wise move to safeguard macroeconomic stability.
The report stated Pakistan’s economy has shown indications of recovery but inflation remains over the central bank’s intended range, restricting the possibility for significant monetary easing.
S&P Global has warned that rising tensions in the Middle East, global commodity price volatility and the increasing impact of climate change continue to pose major risks to Pakistan’s economic prospects.
According to the analysis, Pakistan’s economy is expected to increase by 3.5 percent for the fiscal year 2027, aided by strengthening macroeconomic conditions and a stronger external sector performance.
It also estimates that the country’s foreign exchange reserves might touch $19.5 billion by December 2026, mostly backed by resilient workers’ remittances and reasonably limited current account deficit.
Higher remittance inflows are likely to enhance Pakistan’s external financing position and help reduce balance of payments concerns, S&P Global said.
S&P Global Principal Economist Ahmed Mobeen commented on the prognosis, stressing the importance of fiscal discipline, especially considering the country’s debt service obligations.
Economic conditions have improved, but “the State Bank will likely continue to give priority to price stability and watch closely for global and domestic risks before making any further policy changes”, he said.
Business
Goods carriers are on an indefinite countrywide strike over taxes and fuel prices.
Goods transporters across Pakistan launched an indefinite nationwide strike on Saturday, protesting rising fuel costs, daily diesel price adjustments, taxation and regulatory measures that they say are increasing the financial burden on the transport sector.
All Pakistan Goods Transport Alliance President Malik Shehzad Awan said freight operators had suspended services across the country and would continue the strike until their demands were addressed.
He said the federal government had invited alliance representatives for talks on Monday, while the transporters had formed a committee to represent them during negotiations. The strike would continue until the outcome of the talks was reviewed and a future course of action announced.
Awan said earlier negotiations between transporters and government representatives at the Commissioner’s Office had failed to produce a breakthrough.
The transporters are demanding a reduction in taxes on diesel and the restoration of fuel prices to their July 1, 2024 level. They are also opposing the daily adjustment of diesel prices and want fuel prices revised fortnightly or monthly to provide greater predictability for transport operators.
According to Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) publishes daily fuel prices based on a seven-day average of international benchmark prices. The daily review mechanism was introduced amid heightened volatility in global oil markets linked to tensions in the Middle East.
The alliance is also demanding that withholding tax on cargo transporters be reduced from 7% to 2%, arguing that oil tanker operators are already subject to the lower rate.
Transporters have further objected to customs enforcement measures under which vehicles carrying non-duty-paid goods may be confiscated. They are seeking simplified procedures for heavy transport vehicle driving licences and a reduction in toll taxes.
Ministers’ resignations demanded
Speaking at a press conference at the Karachi Press Club, Awan said goods transport operations across the country were being suspended as part of the ongoing protest.
He accused the federal and provincial governments of failing to implement the alliance’s charter of demands, insisting that all their demands were constitutional and legitimate.
Awan said transporters were staging a peaceful protest by parking their vehicles rather than blocking roads, adding that they did not want to cause inconvenience to citizens.
He called for the resignation of Petroleum Minister Ali Pervaiz Malik and Punjab Senior Minister Maryam Aurangzeb, alleging that commitments made to transporters had not been honoured.
Awan claimed that a single trailer was paying up to Rs2.4 million in toll taxes in addition to taxes on petroleum products.
He alleged that the government was not serious about negotiations and said a committee had been formed to hold talks with government officials.
According to Awan, the strike would be called off once the government issued a formal notification for talks.
Business
In a successful trading week, PSX gains 5,335 points.
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) closed the trading week on a positive note, with the benchmark KSE-100 index gaining 5,335 points to settle at 181,430.
According to the weekly market update, the KSE-100 index traded within a range of 4,963 points, reaching a weekly high of 182,007 and a low of 177,043.
During the week, around 3.74 billion shares were traded in the market, with transactions valued at Rs169 billion.
The market’s total capitalisation also increased by Rs482 billion during the week, reaching Rs20,237 billion.
Business
Due to weather and war, global food prices reached a three-year high in July, according to the FAO.
– World food prices rose in July to their highest in more than three years as adverse weather and war escalation in the Gulf and Black Sea supported crop markets, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said on Friday.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in a basket of internationally traded food commodities, averaged 131.1 points in July, up from 130.3 in June and the highest reading since January 2023.
The FAO’s chief economist told Reuters this week that the world faces another bout of food inflation as wars in Iran and Ukraine along with El Nino create a perfect storm of higher costs and lower crop yields.
A 3.4% month-on-month rise in the FAO’s cereal price index drove the July trend, fuelled in turn by a 5.8% jump in wheat prices, the agency said.
Wheat markets were affected by concerns over Black Sea export disruptions and heat damage to crops in key producing regions, it said.
The FAO’s vegetable oil index rose 2% to its highest level since June 2022.
Higher crude oil prices amid escalation in the Iran war and strong demand for biodiesel supported palm and soy oil prices, though rapeseed and sunflower oil declined.
Sugar prices rose 5.6% on weather concerns in Europe and Asia and expectations of stronger ethanol demand in Brazil.
In contrast, meat prices fell 2.8% from a record high in June, FAO said.
Poultry, pig and bovine meat prices declined, though sheep meat prices reached a record high amid tight export supplies in Oceania. Dairy prices fell 0.7%.
The FAO’s overall food price index reading for July was slightly above a previous three-year high in April.
The latest reading was nonetheless 18.2% below its March 2022 peak that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
-
Latest News3 months agoICC board meeting in India: Mohsin Naqvi gets invitation
-
Latest News2 months agoA meta program to monitor mouse clicks made by employees in violation of EU privacy regulations
-
Latest News2 weeks agoPakistan making rapid progress in robotics, AI: Shaza Fatima
-
Latest News3 weeks ago23 people have died during the monsoon as rain-related incidents plague Punjab and KP.
-
Business3 months agoThe IMF mission has arrived in Pakistan for discussions regarding the budget.
-
Latest News3 months agoTo commemorate the anniversary of Marka-e-Haq, top civic and military leaders assemble at Pakistan Monument.
-
Latest News2 months agoChina and Pakistan Establish Collaborative Herbal Medicine Laboratory to Enhance Traditional Medicine Partnership
-
Latest News2 months ago7.8 magnitude quake hits southern Philippines\
