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S&P Global expects State Bank to remain cautious on monetary policy despite economic benefits

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Pakistan’s improving economic indicators are unlikely to trigger an immediate shift in monetary policy as inflation and external risks continue to weigh on the outlook and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to maintain a cautious approach, according to a new report by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

S&P Global Market Intelligence’s recent assessment indicates that the central bank’s decision to hold the policy rate at 11.5% was a wise move to safeguard macroeconomic stability.

The report stated Pakistan’s economy has shown indications of recovery but inflation remains over the central bank’s intended range, restricting the possibility for significant monetary easing.

S&P Global has warned that rising tensions in the Middle East, global commodity price volatility and the increasing impact of climate change continue to pose major risks to Pakistan’s economic prospects.

According to the analysis, Pakistan’s economy is expected to increase by 3.5 percent for the fiscal year 2027, aided by strengthening macroeconomic conditions and a stronger external sector performance.

It also estimates that the country’s foreign exchange reserves might touch $19.5 billion by December 2026, mostly backed by resilient workers’ remittances and reasonably limited current account deficit.

Higher remittance inflows are likely to enhance Pakistan’s external financing position and help reduce balance of payments concerns, S&P Global said.

S&P Global Principal Economist Ahmed Mobeen commented on the prognosis, stressing the importance of fiscal discipline, especially considering the country’s debt service obligations.

Economic conditions have improved, but “the State Bank will likely continue to give priority to price stability and watch closely for global and domestic risks before making any further policy changes”, he said.

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PSX loses 175,000-point level amid selling pressure

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Pakistan’s stock market entered a negative trend during the first trading day of the week, with the benchmark KSE-100 Index dropping more than 800 points to drop below the 175,000-point barrier.

The Pakistan Stock Exchange kicked off on a sour note in early trade with the index down 285 points to 174,470 points.

The KSE-100 Index had finished at 175,328 points on the penultimate trading day of the week gone by.

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The price of gold drops by Rs3,600 per tola.

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All Pakistan Gems and Jewelers Association said the rate of gold in Pakistan reduced by Rs3,600 per tola.

The association claimed the price of one tola of gold decreased by Rs3,600 to Rs465,536.

The price of gold also fell Rs3,086 to Rs399,122 for 10 grams.

In overseas markets, gold prices slipped $36 to $4,430 an ounce.

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PM Shehbaz greets export insurance support for SMEs

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Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif chaired a meeting on Export Development Fund (EDF) and appreciated the export insurance coverage offered by the EDF and Export-Import Bank of Pakistan (EXIM Bank, especially for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs.

“The Rs3 billion risk pool will enhance the access to export credit insurance, particularly for SMEs and help the business community to enhance its export volume,” stated the prime minister.

He said the idea was a very positive step toward promotion of SMEs in the country, he added. He also thanked the EDF team for beginning changes to enhance the national economy.

He stated that after restructuring and reforms EDF has been put under the direction of private sector specialists and all the monies available with the EDF were being utilized to benefit the business community.

The actions, he said, showed the government’s determination to develop the national economy and boost exports. He was confident that such steps will help turn Pakistan into a global investment destination and take the country toward an export-oriented economy.

During the discussion, the EDF briefed the prime minister on the restructuring and changes it undertook. Officials claimed all of the Rs24 billion available with the EDF had been targeted for investment to facilitate the business community and no more spending was planned on infrastructure.

It was also stated that the EDF was implementing steps in research, skills development and boosting competitiveness to support economic growth and enable enterprises.

Officials briefed the meeting on efforts being made to ensure extension of Pakistan’s GSP Plus preferential trade status to keep access to European markets.

The meeting was attended by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Muhammad Ishaq Dar, Federal Ministers Muhammad Aurangzeb, Rana Tanveer Hussain, Jam Kamal Khan and Ahsan Khan Cheema, Minister of State for Finance Bilal Azhar Kayani, Prime Minister’s Adviser Haroon Akhtar, EDF Board Chairman Umar Saeed and senior officials of relevant institutions.

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