Business
S&P Global expects State Bank to remain cautious on monetary policy despite economic benefits
Pakistan’s improving economic indicators are unlikely to trigger an immediate shift in monetary policy as inflation and external risks continue to weigh on the outlook and the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is expected to maintain a cautious approach, according to a new report by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s recent assessment indicates that the central bank’s decision to hold the policy rate at 11.5% was a wise move to safeguard macroeconomic stability.
The report stated Pakistan’s economy has shown indications of recovery but inflation remains over the central bank’s intended range, restricting the possibility for significant monetary easing.
S&P Global has warned that rising tensions in the Middle East, global commodity price volatility and the increasing impact of climate change continue to pose major risks to Pakistan’s economic prospects.
According to the analysis, Pakistan’s economy is expected to increase by 3.5 percent for the fiscal year 2027, aided by strengthening macroeconomic conditions and a stronger external sector performance.
It also estimates that the country’s foreign exchange reserves might touch $19.5 billion by December 2026, mostly backed by resilient workers’ remittances and reasonably limited current account deficit.
Higher remittance inflows are likely to enhance Pakistan’s external financing position and help reduce balance of payments concerns, S&P Global said.
S&P Global Principal Economist Ahmed Mobeen commented on the prognosis, stressing the importance of fiscal discipline, especially considering the country’s debt service obligations.
Economic conditions have improved, but “the State Bank will likely continue to give priority to price stability and watch closely for global and domestic risks before making any further policy changes”, he said.
Business
Food costs go up across Pakistan, making vegetables, meat and bread expensive
Consumers across Pakistan are facing higher food prices as the cost of vegetables, fruits, meat and flour has increased in several major cities, adding to pressure on household budgets.
In Lahore, vegetable prices remained above officially notified rates, with consumers complaining that market prices were higher despite government price lists. Onions, for instance, were officially priced at Rs195 per kilogram but were being sold for around Rs200 per kg in the market.
Tomatoes had an official rate of Rs150 per kg, while capsicum was being sold at Rs280, bitter gourd at Rs220 and cauliflower at Rs180 per kg, according to the reported market prices.
The situation was also reported in Faisalabad, where meat prices were significantly higher than the notified rates. Beef was being sold for around Rs1,500 per kg, compared with an official rate of Rs1,150.
Mutton prices saw an even larger difference, reaching approximately Rs3,000 per kg in the market against the notified price of Rs2,100 per kg.
The increase in meat prices has added to the financial burden on consumers, particularly households that have already been dealing with higher prices of essential food items.
In Peshawar, the price of flour also increased. The price of a 20-kilogram bag of fine flour reportedly rose by Rs100 to Rs3,150.
Consumers in Quetta also faced higher vegetable prices. Tomatoes reportedly became Rs40 per kg more expensive, while onion prices increased by Rs20 per kg. Okra prices rose by Rs30 per kg, while peas became Rs50 per kg more expensive.
The latest increases have renewed concerns among consumers about the gap between officially notified prices and actual retail market rates.
Official price lists are generally issued by district administrations and relevant authorities to regulate the prices of essential commodities. However, enforcement remains a challenge when retailers sell goods above notified rates.
For consumers, food inflation has a direct impact on household expenditure because vegetables, flour and meat form a significant part of daily food consumption. Higher prices can force families to reduce purchases, switch to cheaper alternatives or allocate a larger share of their income to food.
The price differences reported in different cities also reflect the varying supply and demand conditions in local markets. Transportation costs, availability of produce, seasonal changes and wholesale market prices can influence retail rates.
Authorities routinely conduct inspections and impose fines against retailers accused of overcharging, but consumers frequently complain that official rates are not consistently reflected in markets.
The latest rise in food prices comes as households continue to closely monitor the cost of essential commodities. Any sustained increase in food prices could further increase pressure on family budgets and household purchasing power.
Market conditions and government enforcement measures will determine whether the current price increases ease in the coming days.
Business
PSX starts lower as benchmark index falls over 400 points
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) began lower on Monday as selling pressure continued amidst heightened regional tensions.
The KSE-100 index closed at 170,357.55 after declining by 407.67 points, or 0.24 percent, from 170,765.22 at the last closing.
During early trade, the benchmark index achieved an intra-day high of 171,126.52 and low of 170,223.62.
Market statistics showed trading volume at 36,325,052 shares.
Asian share markets mainly fell on Monday as oil prices surged again with worries about whether the US and Iran can achieve a truce any time soon, leaving bonds under pressure ahead of a week full of economic headlines.
US President Donald Trump this weekend dismissed an Iranian offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran was desperate to reach a deal. Negotiations would continue this week but Iran shows no sign of softening its intentions, Trump said.
Brent prices jumped 2.7% to $107.16 a barrel with gains this month approaching 18%, while US crude futures were up 1.9% at $94.16 a barrel.
Business
Pakistan, IMF will start talks to secure $1.2 billion finance
The government and the staff mission of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will today (Monday) kick-off formal talks for the fourth review of the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the third review of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The IMF mission, led by Iva Petrova, is set to stay in Pakistan for roughly two weeks, until the first week of October, to carry out the two reviews.
Pakistan is on a 37-month IMF program aimed at stabilising the economy through fiscal discipline, structural reforms and steps to foster long-term growth.
With the reviews completed successfully, Pakistan will become eligible to receive around $1 billion under the EFF and another $200 million under the RSF, bringing the total planned financing to $1.2 billion by the end of November or early December.
The discussions will review Pakistan’s economic performance and program targets for the period up to June 30 based on data available up to June 30. The Pakistani authorities will also brief the IMF on the Sovereign Wealth Fund, the measures to eliminate circular debt, and the rationale behind not deregulating the sugar business.
The IMF will also be briefed on the current account deficit, primary surplus, foreign currency reserves and exchange rate. Expansion of tax base and reforms will be the focus of talks with the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR).
IMF to provide Pakistan $3.6 billion more in next 14 months
The Ministry of Energy will update the IMF on circular debt and reforms, while the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) and Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) will give updates on actions to fight money laundering and terrorist funding.
The IMF will also have discussions with the governments of Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to strengthen tax and non-tax revenue collection, particularly measures to boost agricultural tax collection.
He claimed the government had neither issued any sovereign guarantee for a taxpayer-funded loan to buy aircraft for PIA nor was it buying aircraft for the privatised airline.
The clarification follows reports on social media that a minister was involved in negotiations for sovereign-backed finance for PIA jets.
The claims came after a meeting between Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb and US Export-Import Bank Chairman John Jovanovich on the sidelines of the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
The conference was held to discuss the Reko Diq mining project and finance options for the purchase of planes for PIA, the Finance Ministry stated. Aurangzeb also talked about PIA’s interest in Boeing 787 Dreamliners and asked support for a finance package for aircraft and engines.
“Typically US Exim financing is used to finance US exports and may be used for asset-backed aircraft financing, meaning that a sovereign guarantee is not automatically required,” Schehzad said.
Talks with US Exim were not confined to PIA and included prospective finance in aviation, refinery projects and Reko Diq as part of larger Pakistan-US economic cooperation, he said.
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