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Iran-US confrontation hits Pakistan’s exports to the Middle East hard

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— The current Iran-US war has not only rattled the global energy markets and the international economy, but has also severely harmed Pakistan’s trade with shipments to Middle Eastern countries nosediving by as much as 70 percent.

Official documents obtained by Dunya News revealed that Pakistan had a substantial fall in exports in March and April. Exports to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries plummeted about 70 percent in March alone, from more than $315.1 million in March 2025 to $95.4 million in the same month in 2026.

The downturn continued in April albeit at a reduced pace, with shipments to GCC countries falling by more than 23 percent. April 2025 saw Pakistan send commodities worth $200 million to the region, while in April 2026, it exported goods worth $152.4 million.

The GCC bloc includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

March saw the UAE suffer the biggest loss in exports among member states, down 74 percent. Exports to Saudi Arabia decreased 56 percent, to Qatar by 64 percent and to Oman by 85 percent. While shipments to Kuwait fell 21 percent, with Bahrain recording a drop of 85 percent.

The violence has affected sea and air transport lines and raised prices for shipping and logistics, the Ministry of Commerce said. This has impacted the UAE hard because of the breakdown in its logistical network.

Pakistan is significantly reliant on the UAE’s Jebel Ali Port for regional trade, with approximately 80 percent of its trade with GCC countries moving through the key transit centre.

Trade experts worry that prolonged instability in the region could result in higher shipping insurance prices, slower flow of cargo and a further burden on Pakistani exporters already suffering rising production and transportation charges.

Analysts also see wider economic implications for Pakistan in case of lingering tensions, including pressure on foreign exchange earnings and trade balances, as the Middle East is a major destination for Pakistani exports and a key source of economic activity linked to overseas workers and regional trade.

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PSX crosses 176,000 points on US-Iran peace pact, investor confidence boosted

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Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) recorded substantial rally on the first trading day of the week after news of agreement between Iran and United States which improved sentiments across regional financial markets.

The KSE-100 had kicked off the trading session on a bullish note, adding more than 4,500 points. The KSE-100 Index shot up to 176,917 points, a huge progress over last session.

The benchmark index finished at 172,399 points on the last trading day of the previous week. That recent rally has seen good purchasing and a better feeling among investors.

Meanwhile, share markets in Asia jumped on Monday (Oct 2) while the dollar sank and oil prices tumbled as a tentative peace deal between the United States and Iran raised hopes of easing inflationary pressures internationally and lessening the need for higher interest rates.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on social media early Monday that an agreement had been reached, while President Donald Trump said the agreement includes opening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, without details.

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State Bank to declare final monetary policy of fiscal year today

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The State Bank of Pakistan will unveil the final monetary policy for this fiscal year today, with financial markets and institutions closely monitoring the critical decision on the interest rate.

Financial polls show that 49 percent of respondents expect the central bank to maintain the interest rate in the next monetary policy. Similarly, 49 percent believe that the State Bank may hike the interest rate in the forthcoming policy announcement.

Budget 2026-27 moves forward a lot for economic growth: Aurangzeb

The study also finds that 34 percent of respondents expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points, while 15 percent think the increase may be as high as 100 basis points. But 2 percent of respondents anticipate a possible interest rate reduction.

Market watchers expect the central bank to keep interest rate at 11.5 percent supported by lowering global oil prices, contained inflation trends and stability in the rupee.

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Aurangzeb says IMF had not asked for a tariff on solar panels

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He disputed allegations that the government had considering taxing solar panels before the budget. ‘There was never any such demand from the IMF and the topic was never discussed,’ he said.

Aurangzeb stated in a media interaction that the government is working on a set of structural reforms in the energy sector to bring down electricity rates, improve the business environment and increase the competitiveness of major industries, according to a federal minister.

In reply to questions on the high energy costs and capacity charges carried over by successive governments, the minister said expensive power continues to pose a serious problem to industry including manufacturing, information technology, mining and other energy-intensive industries.

He said the government, in partnership with Energy Minister Awais Leghari, had already taken steps to remove cross-subsidies for industry and was pursuing changes through wheeling policy and other measures to increase efficiency in the electricity sector.

Read More : Solar panels, inverters, lithium batteries’ prices soar ahead of budget

The government is moving from short-term relief to more extensive, long-term structural reforms, the minister said. These efforts are to be expected to bear fruit in the coming years rather than immediately, he said.

Privatisation of energy distribution companies (DISCOs) is a crucial part of the reform agenda. The minister said three DISCOs had already been awarded expression of interest (EOI) and two more EOIs will soon be awarded. He said he was certain that the first batch of distribution businesses would be handed over to private sector management by the end of the year, with the rest to follow in phases.

There would need to be more regulatory control to accompany privatisation and work was beginning to ensure the regulatory system would be robust and effective, he said.

He also emphasised the ambitions to shift away from the existing single-buyer energy market model, controlled through the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA), to a competitive multi-buyer system. “The change will help dismantle existing monopolistic structures and improve market efficiency,” he said.

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