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Iran-US confrontation hits Pakistan’s exports to the Middle East hard

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— The current Iran-US war has not only rattled the global energy markets and the international economy, but has also severely harmed Pakistan’s trade with shipments to Middle Eastern countries nosediving by as much as 70 percent.

Official documents obtained by Dunya News revealed that Pakistan had a substantial fall in exports in March and April. Exports to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries plummeted about 70 percent in March alone, from more than $315.1 million in March 2025 to $95.4 million in the same month in 2026.

The downturn continued in April albeit at a reduced pace, with shipments to GCC countries falling by more than 23 percent. April 2025 saw Pakistan send commodities worth $200 million to the region, while in April 2026, it exported goods worth $152.4 million.

The GCC bloc includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

March saw the UAE suffer the biggest loss in exports among member states, down 74 percent. Exports to Saudi Arabia decreased 56 percent, to Qatar by 64 percent and to Oman by 85 percent. While shipments to Kuwait fell 21 percent, with Bahrain recording a drop of 85 percent.

The violence has affected sea and air transport lines and raised prices for shipping and logistics, the Ministry of Commerce said. This has impacted the UAE hard because of the breakdown in its logistical network.

Pakistan is significantly reliant on the UAE’s Jebel Ali Port for regional trade, with approximately 80 percent of its trade with GCC countries moving through the key transit centre.

Trade experts worry that prolonged instability in the region could result in higher shipping insurance prices, slower flow of cargo and a further burden on Pakistani exporters already suffering rising production and transportation charges.

Analysts also see wider economic implications for Pakistan in case of lingering tensions, including pressure on foreign exchange earnings and trade balances, as the Middle East is a major destination for Pakistani exports and a key source of economic activity linked to overseas workers and regional trade.

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Petrol price cut by Rs2.71, diesel drops 30 paisa per litre

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Motorists have suffered another blow with the latest gasoline price review, which has once again seen petrol and diesel prices drop.

Petrol has seen a reduction of Rs2.71 per litre, while diesel has become 30 paisa cheaper.

According to the fuel price information provided, the new prices will come into force on Wednesday (14 October 2026).

New fuel prices

The petrol price has been cut by Rs2.71 per litre to Rs392.66 per litre.

The company announced that the price of high-speed diesel was decreased by 30 paisa per litre and the new pricing is Rs396.82 per litre.

Daily pricing mechanism

The latest revision comes after the government shifted to daily fuel price evaluations, allowing petroleum rates to respond more often to fluctuations in overseas markets.

Under the new mechanism, pricing will be determined based on international market rates averaged over seven days, among other things, such as benchmark prices, premiums and charges.

It is a scheme designed to ensure that changes in world oil prices are passed on to consumers more quickly.

According to the price information, fuel prices would not change on public holidays, Saturdays and Sundays.

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Dollar languishes as focus turns to CPI, Fed speakers

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The dollar was down on Wednesday as traders anticipated further clues on timing of interest rate hikes to tackle stubborn inflation.

The dollar retreated from an 18-month high in the last session, as oil prices slipped and investors reviewed the AI-driven surge that has bolstered demand for U.S. assets. The euro clung to gains, with budget worries in France keeping regional bond yields high and markets on edge.

Attention now turns to the release of US consumer price index data and speeches by Federal Reserve governors that could provide clues on the interest rate outlook.The danger is that the core CPI surprises to the upside due to strong consumer demand and higher expenses, driving up market pricing of an October Fed hike and the USD’, Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.02% at 102.16 after down 0.35% on Tuesday. The euro was up 0.04% at $1.1203.

The dollar was last barely changed at 158.32 yen and sterling was last up 0.03 percent at $1.3256.

The dollar continued losses on Tuesday as New York Fed President John Williams said he still expects one more rate hike this year, but sees no need for any increases in 2027.

The US Labour Department is set to issue its ⁠CPI for September, which is predicted to have increased by 0.6% month-on-month after a 0.4% rise in August, while annual inflation is expected to rise to 3.6% from 3.4%. Also set to be released is the Fed’s Beige Book.

Traders priced in a 77% likelihood the Fed will keep rates steady at its October 27-28 ​meeting, compared with 51% ​a month earlier, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, while ⁠pricing in around 75 basis points of tightening to late 2027.

Bets on a Fed rate hike later this month were dumped after two members urged for gathering more evidence before judging whether additional tightening is needed, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation expectations remained “well anchored.”

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is slated to take part in a fireside chat in Virginia and Federal Reserve Vise Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is to take part in discussions in Bangkok.

The International Monetary Fund and World Bank are holding their annual meetings in Bangkok, with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde likely to appear multiple times on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar advanced 0.06% to $0.6984 against the greenback and New Zealand’s kiwi rose 0.09% to $0.5614.

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Oil prices up after escalation in Middle East tensions

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The report said the weekend attacks on two oil tankers and strikes by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi movement on Saudi Arabia fueled investor concerns about future regional oil supply disruptions.

Brent crude prices jumped 76 cents, or 0.73%, to $105.48 a barrel at 7:04 p.m. EDT Sunday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased 59 cents, or 0.64%, to $92.44 a barrel.

Houthi fighters claimed responsibility for a missile attack on Riyadh’s international airport Saturday that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300 others.

Saudi police announced another death and further injuries Sunday in a second attack on the airport.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) cautioned U.S. airlines on Sunday to exercise extreme caution flying in or above Saudi airspace, citing increased security threats stemming from the ongoing military conflict and disruptions to navigation systems, Reuters reported.

A notification to airmen (NOTAM) by the FAA, effective through Dec. 10, comes after a series of strikes on Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, including a new wave over the weekend.”Threats could pose a potential risk to aircraft during all phases of flight, including overflight, arrival and departure,” the FAA said.

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