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Iran-US confrontation hits Pakistan’s exports to the Middle East hard

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— The current Iran-US war has not only rattled the global energy markets and the international economy, but has also severely harmed Pakistan’s trade with shipments to Middle Eastern countries nosediving by as much as 70 percent.

Official documents obtained by Dunya News revealed that Pakistan had a substantial fall in exports in March and April. Exports to Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries plummeted about 70 percent in March alone, from more than $315.1 million in March 2025 to $95.4 million in the same month in 2026.

The downturn continued in April albeit at a reduced pace, with shipments to GCC countries falling by more than 23 percent. April 2025 saw Pakistan send commodities worth $200 million to the region, while in April 2026, it exported goods worth $152.4 million.

The GCC bloc includes the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar.

March saw the UAE suffer the biggest loss in exports among member states, down 74 percent. Exports to Saudi Arabia decreased 56 percent, to Qatar by 64 percent and to Oman by 85 percent. While shipments to Kuwait fell 21 percent, with Bahrain recording a drop of 85 percent.

The violence has affected sea and air transport lines and raised prices for shipping and logistics, the Ministry of Commerce said. This has impacted the UAE hard because of the breakdown in its logistical network.

Pakistan is significantly reliant on the UAE’s Jebel Ali Port for regional trade, with approximately 80 percent of its trade with GCC countries moving through the key transit centre.

Trade experts worry that prolonged instability in the region could result in higher shipping insurance prices, slower flow of cargo and a further burden on Pakistani exporters already suffering rising production and transportation charges.

Analysts also see wider economic implications for Pakistan in case of lingering tensions, including pressure on foreign exchange earnings and trade balances, as the Middle East is a major destination for Pakistani exports and a key source of economic activity linked to overseas workers and regional trade.

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As oil rises due to concerns about the Strait of Hormuz closing, gold falls more than 1%.

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– Gold prices slid ‌more than 1% on Monday as fears of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove oil prices sharply higher, reviving expectations of elevated interest rates to combat inflationary pressures from escalating hostilities in the Middle ​East.

Spot gold dropped 1.5% to $4,060.36 per ounce by 0541 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August ​delivery were down 1.1% at $4,068.30.

U.S. and Iranian forces have exchanged heavy missile ⁠and drone assaults, with Tehran targeting U.S. facilities in states across the Gulf on Sunday and saying ​it had again closed the vital Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices jumped about 4%, the dollar and ​U.S. Treasury yields climbed, and share markets slipped in Asia.

“Any breakout of violence in the Gulf is accompanied by pressure on gold,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery.

“The question is, if the ​Strait of Hormuz remains effectively or partially closed, does that lead to a deflationary effect, ​further down the road, that might actually be supportive for gold if you have demand destruction leading to lower ‌economic ⁠activity,” Frappell added.

Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual testimony before Congress as Federal Reserve chair, along with a slate of key U.S. economic data, including June CPI, PPI and retail sales, will be closely watched this week for fresh clues on the economy, inflation and the monetary policy outlook.

Remarks from Fed ​policymakers, including Vice Chair ​Michelle Bowman and Governor ⁠Christopher Waller, later in the day are also in focus as they could provide insights on how inflationary pressures are affecting the central bank’s ​stance on interest rate hikes.

Traders are currently pricing in a 72% chance ​of a ⁠U.S. Fed interest rate hike in September, up from about 63% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. FEDWATCH/ COMEX gold speculators trimmed their net long positions by 1,964 contracts to 114,854 in the ⁠week to ​July 7, data released on Friday showed, following three ​consecutive weeks of increases.

Elsewhere, spot silver declined 2.6% to $58.29 per ounce, platinum shed 1.6% to $1,601.92, and palladium fell 2% to $1,251.42

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Oil prices climb as US, Iran fight for control of Hormuz

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muz, one of the most important trade routes for global energy supplies.

US crude oil futures were up 4.1% at $74:33 per barrel as of 9:15 p.m. ET. Brent futures, the international benchmark, traded 3.88% higher at $78.96.

The US military launched another wave of strikes Sunday against Iran after hitting 140 targets on Saturday, according to U.S. Central Command. The strikes are in response to an attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on a container ship transiting Hormuz.

Iran responded Sunday with strikes on U.S. military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman, according to the state news agency Tasnim.

Iranian state media said the Revolutionary Guard had closed the Hormuz until further notice, but the U.S. military disputed that claim. Centcom said the strait was open to “all vessels seeking to lawfully transit.”

“U.S. forces are positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression, harassment, threats, and arbitrary declarations,” Centcom said in a social media post Sunday. “Iran does not control the strait. Traffic is flowing.”

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PSX has a steep sell-off this week.

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— The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) launched the first trading session of the week with a dramatic sell-off, as intense selling pressure pulled the benchmark KSE-100 Index down by more than 2,100 points in early trade.

At the opening of the session, the benchmark index plummeted to the psychological barrier of about 180,100 points after losing more than 2,100 points.

The fall came after a positive conclusion in the previous trading session, when the KSE-100 Index gained 982 points to conclude at 182,241 points at the end of the day.

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