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Pakistan, IMF ‘agree’ on major budget targets for FY2026-27

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Sources said the federal budget for FY2026-27 was likely to be around Rs18 trillion. Most of the financial issues have been discussed and settled but the virtual negotiations between the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are apparently ongoing on ideas to provide relief to the salaried class.

The IMF has agreed to cut the FBR’s tax collection target for the current fiscal year for the second time, sources said.

The revised objective has been decreased to Rs13.005 trillion from Rs13.979 trillion, according to reports. The government is likely to fix a total tax collection target of around Rs15.264 trillion for the next financial year.

The proposed revenue break-up is Rs7.413 trillion from direct taxes, Rs4.727 trillion from sales tax, Rs1.651 trillion from customs duties and Rs1.043 trillion through Federal Excise Duty.

IMF asks Pakistan to broaden tax net, boost revenue collection
Meanwhile, the Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) is projected to continue to be a major source of government revenue. Sources said the target for PDL collections could be boosted to Rs1.727 trillion in the next fiscal year as against Rs1.468 trillion for this year.

Non-tax revenue is likely to be around Rs2,768 billion while petrol surcharge receipts are estimated at roughly Rs151 billion.

On the spending side, debt servicing will probably remain the major budgetary burden on the federal government. Total interest and debt servicing payments are anticipated to be Rs7.824 trillion. Of that, Rs6.652 trillion is for domestic debt and Rs1.107 trillion for foreign debt servicing.

Sources also say the forthcoming budget may propose new taxing measures of around Rs220 billion to help achieve budgetary targets set with the IMF.

Besides, changes in income tax brackets for salaried people are also allegedly on the cards. The government is looking at ways to provide some assistance to taxpayers in the formal sector.

The federal budget will be delivered in the next several days, providing further insight into taxation, spending objectives and economic strategy for the new financial year.

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PSX crosses 176,000 points on US-Iran peace pact, investor confidence boosted

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Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) recorded substantial rally on the first trading day of the week after news of agreement between Iran and United States which improved sentiments across regional financial markets.

The KSE-100 had kicked off the trading session on a bullish note, adding more than 4,500 points. The KSE-100 Index shot up to 176,917 points, a huge progress over last session.

The benchmark index finished at 172,399 points on the last trading day of the previous week. That recent rally has seen good purchasing and a better feeling among investors.

Meanwhile, share markets in Asia jumped on Monday (Oct 2) while the dollar sank and oil prices tumbled as a tentative peace deal between the United States and Iran raised hopes of easing inflationary pressures internationally and lessening the need for higher interest rates.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on social media early Monday that an agreement had been reached, while President Donald Trump said the agreement includes opening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, without details.

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State Bank to declare final monetary policy of fiscal year today

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The State Bank of Pakistan will unveil the final monetary policy for this fiscal year today, with financial markets and institutions closely monitoring the critical decision on the interest rate.

Financial polls show that 49 percent of respondents expect the central bank to maintain the interest rate in the next monetary policy. Similarly, 49 percent believe that the State Bank may hike the interest rate in the forthcoming policy announcement.

Budget 2026-27 moves forward a lot for economic growth: Aurangzeb

The study also finds that 34 percent of respondents expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points, while 15 percent think the increase may be as high as 100 basis points. But 2 percent of respondents anticipate a possible interest rate reduction.

Market watchers expect the central bank to keep interest rate at 11.5 percent supported by lowering global oil prices, contained inflation trends and stability in the rupee.

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Aurangzeb says IMF had not asked for a tariff on solar panels

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He disputed allegations that the government had considering taxing solar panels before the budget. ‘There was never any such demand from the IMF and the topic was never discussed,’ he said.

Aurangzeb stated in a media interaction that the government is working on a set of structural reforms in the energy sector to bring down electricity rates, improve the business environment and increase the competitiveness of major industries, according to a federal minister.

In reply to questions on the high energy costs and capacity charges carried over by successive governments, the minister said expensive power continues to pose a serious problem to industry including manufacturing, information technology, mining and other energy-intensive industries.

He said the government, in partnership with Energy Minister Awais Leghari, had already taken steps to remove cross-subsidies for industry and was pursuing changes through wheeling policy and other measures to increase efficiency in the electricity sector.

Read More : Solar panels, inverters, lithium batteries’ prices soar ahead of budget

The government is moving from short-term relief to more extensive, long-term structural reforms, the minister said. These efforts are to be expected to bear fruit in the coming years rather than immediately, he said.

Privatisation of energy distribution companies (DISCOs) is a crucial part of the reform agenda. The minister said three DISCOs had already been awarded expression of interest (EOI) and two more EOIs will soon be awarded. He said he was certain that the first batch of distribution businesses would be handed over to private sector management by the end of the year, with the rest to follow in phases.

There would need to be more regulatory control to accompany privatisation and work was beginning to ensure the regulatory system would be robust and effective, he said.

He also emphasised the ambitions to shift away from the existing single-buyer energy market model, controlled through the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA), to a competitive multi-buyer system. “The change will help dismantle existing monopolistic structures and improve market efficiency,” he said.

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